Trade disputes ease, copper prices have risen

In the market, in the week of August 30, domestic spot copper prices continued to rise
.
The average price of Yangtze River nonferrous metal network 1# copper was 46496 yuan / ton, up 82 yuan / ton per day, and up 0.
88% on the weekly line; The average price of the previous week was 46466 yuan / ton, up 30 yuan / ton compared with last week, up 0.
06%
from the previous month.

Inventories, London copper stocks continued to rise last week, with a cumulative increase of 5,750 metric tons to 337675 metric tons, a cumulative increase of 1.
53%.

Shanghai copper stocks continued to fall last week, falling by 12,697 tons to 143876 tons, a decrease of 8.
11%.

Domestic aspects:

1.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in July 2019, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in the country increased by 2.
6% year-on-year, and fell by 3.
1%
in June.
The cumulative profit from January to July fell by 1.
7% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.
7 percentage points
from January to June.
Although the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises turned from negative to positive in July, the downward pressure on the economy was greater, market demand slowed down, industrial product prices fell, the volatility and uncertainty of industrial enterprises' profits still existed, and efforts were still needed to promote the stable growth of corporate profits
.

2.
According to the Ministry of Transport, the investment in transportation fixed assets in the first seven months was 1,643.
6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.
1%.

In July, transportation maintained stable operation, the main indicators were stable in a reasonable range, the scale of investment in transportation fixed assets was running at a high level, the decline in passenger traffic narrowed, the growth rate of urban public transport passenger transport accelerated, freight volume maintained rapid growth, and port cargo throughput grew
steadily.

International aspects:

1.
U.
S.
consumer confidence fell slightly in August as optimism about the current situation rose to its highest level since late 2000, offsetting weaker economic conditions
, according to the Conference Board.
The consumer confidence index slipped to 135.
1 in August, compared with 135.
8
after an upward adjustment the previous month.

2.
Senior economists at ING pointed out that the Eurozone's economic confidence index unexpectedly rose in August, from 102.
7 to 103.
1
.
Although this is only a small improvement and does not imply an economic recovery, it at least shows that the eurozone is not headed for recession
in this rather uncertain economic period.

Copper Market News:

1.
Anglo-American Resources Peru's Quellaveco copper mine may face protests
again.
The local community in Peru will speak to Tumilaca residents and commit to collecting samples for analysis in an independent laboratory, which will raise awareness of
the possible impact of Anglo American Resources' construction of the Quellaveco mine.
If their concerns are not addressed, they will resume the protests
.

Mining company Excelsior has completed a pipeline corridor at the Gunnison copper project in southern Arizona, meaning the company is on track to deliver its first copper mines
in the fourth quarter of 2019.
The deposit contains 4.
99 billion pounds of tested and indicated copper resources and is expected to produce 2.
2 billion pounds of pure copper cathodes
over 24 years.

Outlook: At present, the global economy has not yet experienced a significant recession, but economic growth has slowed down, and the World Bank and others have successively lowered their global economic growth forecasts
for this year and next.
In order to cope with the deteriorating domestic economic situation and prevent the economy from falling into a recession trap, the monetary policies of various countries have set off a wave of interest rate cuts since the beginning of this year, and the United States and other countries have also joined in
.
Although risk aversion has weakened due to the increase in market confidence due to the latest positive developments in the trade situation, there is still greater uncertainty
in the macro market.
With the end of the air-conditioning production season, the drive for copper demand has weakened, but grid investment has improved, and the State Council's 20 new policies to boost consumption will release the potential of automobile consumption and help boost market confidence
.
The tight supply at the mine end is still in place, and the market is still confident
about the rebound of copper prices in the fourth quarter under the expectation of high mine prices and improved grid consumption.
The traditional gold nine silver ten is coming, in the case of the weakening of the macro suppression, copper prices may rise next week but the space is limited
.