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According to the top ten forecasts of the solar industry in 2019 released by market analyst Wood Mackenzie, the global installed solar capacity is expected to reach 103.
8 GW
throughout the year.
Despite market uncertainty in 2018, the global solar market showed positive signs
in just a few weeks in 2019, the report said.
We have seen clear policies in China and Saudi Arabia, highly aggressive solar-plus storage pricing in Hawaii, and bolder plans
for the Indian PV market.
1) First, there will be a major installation milestone: "Global new solar capacity will eventually exceed 100 GW in 2019, and Wood Mackenzie's latest forecast for 2019 will reach 103 GW
.
" The global market continues to diversify, with the world's top 20 PV markets accounting for 83% of new demand by 2023, with the fastest growth concentrated in the Middle East and the Mediterranean region (including Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt and Italy).
2) The cost of solar energy in megawatt-hours continues to decrease
.
The report argues that "under optimized assumptions, there is still room for very low PV costs to fall to $14/MWh, and recent average bids in Egypt, Jordan and the UAE below $30/MWh suggest that more prices at similar levels
may occur in 2019.
" ”
3) Policy evolution in key markets is critical
.
"In the first few weeks of 2019, the solar PV policies and targets of China and Saudi Arabia have been clarified
.
Ahead of these announcements, these are forecast to be the number one and eighth largest installers of solar PV in 2023, respectively, so the development of these markets is critical
to the trajectory of global demand.
”
4) The UK may be the only country
to join the "subsidy-free club" in 2019.
Spain, Portugal and Italy have been at the vanguard of subsidy-free utility-scale solar PV, with multiple gigawatt projects
in the development pipeline.
This year will see the first wave of deliveries of
these projects.
As costs continue to fall, subsidy-free solar projects are expected to expand beyond Southern Europe in 2019
.
5) The company is promoting solar power generation
with the goal of supplying 100% renewable energy.
"More and more companies are looking to energy storage or meeting voluntary renewable energy targets
.
56% of these corporate buyers are from the technology and data sectors
.
In the third quarter of 2018, the market share of companies purchasing solar power increased the most, from 13% to 15%.
”
6) Increased investment in the solar portfolio
.
"We tracked nearly 21 GW of solar PV asset transactions globally in 2018, up 38% from the previous year.
.
.
In the U.
S.
, 47% of all solar asset transactions occurred in 2018, and we expect investors to increasingly look for large portfolios
in the early stages of development.
”
7) The solar + storage model will explode
in 2019.
Hawaii has proposed seven projects that will add 262 MW of solar and more than 1 GWh of storage at an average price as low as $78/MWh
.
Wood Mackenzie currently estimates 1.
4 GWh of energy storage installed across the U.
S
.
and forecasts 8.
8 GWh of solar plus storage capacity installed in the U.
S.
by 2023, growing at a CAGR of 82% starting in 2018, led by California, Arizona, Colorado and Hawaii.
8) Leading module technology will drive prices to continue lower
.
In 2019, 41% of global module manufacturing capacity will be used for single PERC production, up from 36%
in 2018.
By the end of 2019, the global average CAPEX will fall to $0.
95/Wdc as global hybrid module prices fall below $0.
25/Wdc
.
“
9) Large projects may have
peaked.
The report predicts that 2019 will be a make-or-break year
for the concept of mega-capacity through a single request for proposals (RFP) tender.
There are more than 63 GW of single-developer mega project capacity (500 MW+ per size) in the global pipeline, of which 84% consists of
projects in the pre-construction phase.
10) Oil and gas companies are entering the solar market
.
In 2019, oil and gas companies will make further efforts to reduce their own emissions, and solar PV power generation will be conducive to capitalization
.
From large private utility battery manufacturers to EV charging infrastructure companies to rural solar home system companies in sub-Saharan Africa, the most forward-thinking oil and gas giants are entering the power sector
.
According to the top ten forecasts of the solar industry in 2019 released by market analyst Wood Mackenzie, the global installed solar capacity is expected to reach 103.
8 GW
throughout the year.
Despite market uncertainty in 2018, the global solar market showed positive signs
in just a few weeks in 2019, the report said.
We have seen clear policies in China and Saudi Arabia, highly aggressive solar-plus storage pricing in Hawaii, and bolder plans
for the Indian PV market.
1) First, there will be a major installation milestone: "Global new solar capacity will eventually exceed 100 GW in 2019, and Wood Mackenzie's latest forecast for 2019 will reach 103 GW
.
" The global market continues to diversify, with the world's top 20 PV markets accounting for 83% of new demand by 2023, with the fastest growth concentrated in the Middle East and the Mediterranean region (including Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt and Italy).
2) The cost of solar energy in megawatt-hours continues to decrease
.
The report argues that "under optimized assumptions, there is still room for very low PV costs to fall to $14/MWh, and recent average bids in Egypt, Jordan and the UAE below $30/MWh suggest that more prices at similar levels
may occur in 2019.
" ”
3) Policy evolution in key markets is critical
.
"In the first few weeks of 2019, the solar PV policies and targets of China and Saudi Arabia have been clarified
.
Ahead of these announcements, these are forecast to be the number one and eighth largest installers of solar PV in 2023, respectively, so the development of these markets is critical
to the trajectory of global demand.
”
4) The UK may be the only country
to join the "subsidy-free club" in 2019.
Spain, Portugal and Italy have been at the vanguard of subsidy-free utility-scale solar PV, with multiple gigawatt projects
in the development pipeline.
This year will see the first wave of deliveries of
these projects.
As costs continue to fall, subsidy-free solar projects are expected to expand beyond Southern Europe in 2019
.
5) The company is promoting solar power generation
with the goal of supplying 100% renewable energy.
"More and more companies are looking to energy storage or meeting voluntary renewable energy targets
.
56% of these corporate buyers are from the technology and data sectors
.
In the third quarter of 2018, the market share of companies purchasing solar power increased the most, from 13% to 15%.
”
6) Increased investment in the solar portfolio
.
"We tracked nearly 21 GW of solar PV asset transactions globally in 2018, up 38% from the previous year.
.
.
In the U.
S.
, 47% of all solar asset transactions occurred in 2018, and we expect investors to increasingly look for large portfolios
in the early stages of development.
”
7) The solar + storage model will explode
in 2019.
Hawaii has proposed seven projects that will add 262 MW of solar and more than 1 GWh of storage at an average price as low as $78/MWh
.
Wood Mackenzie currently estimates 1.
4 GWh of energy storage installed across the U.
S
.
and forecasts 8.
8 GWh of solar plus storage capacity installed in the U.
S.
by 2023, growing at a CAGR of 82% starting in 2018, led by California, Arizona, Colorado and Hawaii.
8) Leading module technology will drive prices to continue lower
.
In 2019, 41% of global module manufacturing capacity will be used for single PERC production, up from 36%
in 2018.
By the end of 2019, the global average CAPEX will fall to $0.
95/Wdc as global hybrid module prices fall below $0.
25/Wdc
.
“
9) Large projects may have
peaked.
The report predicts that 2019 will be a make-or-break year
for the concept of mega-capacity through a single request for proposals (RFP) tender.
There are more than 63 GW of single-developer mega project capacity (500 MW+ per size) in the global pipeline, of which 84% consists of
projects in the pre-construction phase.
10) Oil and gas companies are entering the solar market
.
In 2019, oil and gas companies will make further efforts to reduce their own emissions, and solar PV power generation will be conducive to capitalization
.
From large private utility battery manufacturers to EV charging infrastructure companies to rural solar home system companies in sub-Saharan Africa, the most forward-thinking oil and gas giants are entering the power sector
.
