Tianjiao inventory is increasing rapidly, and downstream market demand needs to be boosted

Inventories: As of April 30, rubber stocks in Qingdao Free Trade Zone increased by 13.
5% to 249,800 tons, a net increase of 29,700 tons
from the previous period.
Specifically, the inventory of natural rubber increased rapidly, which played a major role
in driving the growth of inventory.
Stocks of synthetic rubbers also increased, driving the growth
of synthetic rubber inventories.
Out-of-zone rubber inventories also continued to increase
.
Overall, the rubber spot inventory in Qingdao is relatively abundant
.

In terms of import and export, according to the ANRPC report of the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, in the first quarter of 2017, the output of tianjiao was 2.
499 million tons, an increase of 2% year-on-year, except for Thailand and Malaysia, which fell year-on-year, and the output of most of the remaining tianjiao major producing countries increased, of which Vietnam's tianjiao production increased
.
In the first three months, the export volume of Tianjiao was 2.
243 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.
4%.

Among them, the countries with year-on-year export growth were Indonesia (up 17.
7%), Vietnam (up 11.
2%), Malaysia (up 6.
6%) and Cambodia (up 43.
3%), and Thailand's exports alone fell by 9.
6%
year-on-year.
According to ANRPC estimates, the total output of tianjiao in the first half of 2017 was 4.
99 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.
9%; Export volume increased by 1.
5%
year-on-year.
The annual output of tianjiao increased by 4.
7% year-on-year, and the export volume increased by 0.
5%
year-on-year.

Downstream market: The decline in property sales narrowed in early May, and the decline in land transactions widened
last week.
In April, the growth rate of real estate sales in 64 cities declined step by step, and in early May, the sales volume of real estate in 64 cities increased by -15%
year-on-year.
However, since May, domestic housing loans have continued to tighten, and mortgage interest rates may continue to rise under the background of financial deleveraging
.
Last week, the transaction area of land in Baicheng fell sharply, with a sharp negative year-on-year increase, which may have dragged
down real estate investment.

At present, foreign production areas have been cut one after another, and the supply side will continue to rise in the future, domestic imports will increase sharply, and the inventory of Qingdao Free Trade Zone will continue to rise
.
Real estate sales declined, the economy may return to recession, downstream demand is insufficient, the growth rate of automobile sales in April fell by 2.
2% year-on-year, the peak season of heavy-duty truck sales has passed, and the pressure of rubber and tire destocking is greater
.
Therefore, it is expected that the rubber market quotation will rise hopelessly
.