There is still support below the copper price, and the probability of going higher in the later period is higher

Abroad, the geopolitical crisis has escalated, and the commodity market is strongly risk-aversion
.
From the perspective of time nodes, on April 7, the United States launched a military strike on Syria, and at the same time, the Russian Black Sea Fleet has sailed to the Mediterranean region to prepare for military missions, and the geopolitical game between the United States and Russia continues
.
In addition, the recent North Korean nuclear issue has aroused the attention of global investors, the game between China and the United States has begun to gradually escalate, geopolitical crises continue, and market risk aversion has increased to a certain extent negative for the commodity market
.

Domestically, although there are obvious signs of tightening of real estate regulation and control recently, a series of real estate purchase restrictions in many places in China have been released in a concentrated manner, in terms of monetary policy, Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of China, said that after years of quantitative easing monetary policy, the current round of policy cycle is nearing the end, and the tightening of monetary policy bearish commodity markets
.
However, at present, the macro stabilization and upward trend is obvious, and the overall is still relatively optimistic
.

From the data point of view, the National Bureau of Statistics released the latest import and export data in March, the performance was better, March exports were 22.
3% year-on-year, significantly higher than the previous value of 4.
2%, and the data hit the highest growth rate in two years, March imports 26.
3% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 44.
7%.

In addition, the monthly official manufacturing PMI released earlier than expected, above the boom-bust line for 8 consecutive months, while the rest of the released economic data also performed well, and China's economic development remained stable and good
overall.
In summary, the macro situation has generally maintained a stable and positive trend, which has supported the commodity market
.

In terms of real estate, the "gold three silver four" is still expected, with the recent start of construction in the north and south, the downstream demand for copper is gradually picking up
.
Power grid investment will remain stable, according to the previous State Grid Corporation released the 2016 social responsibility report, committed to 2017 total power grid investment of 587.
1 billion yuan, fixed assets investment of 484.
8 billion yuan, although the data compared with 2016 power grid fixed assets investment of 521 billion yuan, power grid investment of 497.
7 billion yuan slightly reduced, but overall stable to copper prices to form a certain support
.

On the supply and demand side, strikes at some upstream mines ended, production at the Escondida copper mine, the world's largest copper mine in Chile, recently restarted, and Cerro Verde copper miners, the largest copper mine in Peru, have resumed work, ending nearly three weeks of strike
.
Freeport Indonesia recently received government permission to resume operations and exports, reflecting the resumption of production
at the Grasberg Copper Mine, the world's second largest copper mine.
No major copper mines worldwide are in the event of strike relief
.

Notably, foreign processing fees continue to decline, with copper spot processing fees continuing to decline since the beginning of 2017, with the latest data showing copper processing fees of $71.
5 per tonne and refining fees of 7.
15 cents per pound in March
.
Meanwhile, China's copper feedstock joint negotiating group has agreed to set copper processing refining fees (TR/RCS) at $80/mt and 8 cents/lb in the second quarter, down from $90/mt and 9 cents/lb
in the first quarter.
The lower processing fees reflect the expectation of a decline in upstream supply, which may become one of the main driving forces supporting the upward trend in copper prices in the later stage, given the tightening of
copper supply.

In general, the short-term geopolitical crisis escalated, risk aversion is strong bearish commodity markets, and the domestic housing market and currency tightening on commodity prices or further dragged down, but the current overall macroeconomic stability, foreign mine processing fees continue to decline, copper mine supply tightening or will become the main driving force for copper prices to rise, at the same time, the "gold three silver four" traditional peak season is still expected, copper prices are expected to rise further in the later period
.