There is resistance above Shanghai aluminum main force rushing high oscillation

Market focus: (1) The trading price of the US federal funds rate futures contract shows that traders expect the Fed to reduce the federal funds rate to negative territory as early as November this year
.
(2) SMM data, China's electrolytic aluminum output in April was 2.
958 million tons, an increase of 2.
4% year-on-year; It is expected that the output in May will be 3.
07 million tons, with a small year-on-year growth rate of 0.
1%.

(3) SMM data, China's alumina output in April was 5.
645 million tons, an increase of 2.
61% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 7.
07%.

Spot analysis: On May 11, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 13010-13050 yuan / ton, with an average price of 13030 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 190 yuan / ton
.
During the day, the carrier shipped more actively, the middleman received the goods normally, a large household carried out the procurement plan normally, and the transaction between the buyer and seller was acceptable, but due to the strong aluminum period, the actual transaction premium decreased significantly compared with the previous two days
.
Downstream intraday on-demand purchase is the mainstay, due to the sharp rise in aluminum prices, the willingness to replenish goods is not strong
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 177108 tons, a daily decrease of 2446 tons, a continuous decline of 16 days; On May 6, LME aluminum stocks were 1352525 tons, down 2,500 tons
per day.
As of the week of May 8, the Shanghai aluminum inventory in the previous period was reported 388899 tons, a weekly decrease of 21,644 tons, a decline of 8 consecutive weeks
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2007 contracts were 84388 lots, minus 2558 lots per day, short positions were 115457 lots, daily increase of 1787 lots, net short positions of 31069 lots, daily 4345 lots, more short increase, net space increase
.

Market research and judgment: On May 11, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2007 rushed high and oscillated
.
With the improvement of the epidemic, downstream processing plant production resumed, aluminum processing fees climbed, demand improved, and the recent continuous deteriorating of Shanghai aluminum inventories supported aluminum prices
.
Overseas has been greatly affected by the epidemic, export orders have declined significantly, coupled with the high ratio of Shanghai, resulting in a sharp decline in aluminum exports, and future demand prospects are still worried; Coupled with the rebound of aluminum prices, stimulating the release of investment capacity, there are growth expectations for electrolytic aluminum supply, and there is resistance
above aluminum prices.
In terms of spot, intraday cargo holders are more active, middlemen receive goods normally, a large household carries out procurement plans normally, and downstream intraday on-demand purchases are the mainstay
.
Technically, the mainstream position of Shanghai's main 2007 contract increased and decreased, but there is pressure above 12600, and it is expected that the short-term pressure will pullback
.