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Overnight, the main 03 contract of Shanghai copper opened high at 70510 yuan / ton, after a short period of sorting, it fell to 70480 yuan / ton, and then the long position increase rose to touch 70770 yuan / ton after the short position increased, the plate fell back near the daily moving average, and around 70600 yuan / ton narrow range of shock sorting, midday close at 70630 yuan / ton
.
The afternoon opening plate continued to oscillate around the daily moving average, but the amplitude expanded slightly, and at about 14:30, the market quickly retraced to the daily moving average after testing 70360 yuan / ton, and finally closed at 70590 yuan / ton
.
On the macro front, yesterday's economic data was relatively sparse, but the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its latest monthly short-term energy outlook, sharply raising the price of crude oil this year, and expects US crude oil production to hit a record high next year, which is still relatively positive for copper price feedback from the perspective of inflation expectations
.
In terms of fundamentals, as of January 28, the TC index rose slightly, and the Erenhot railway port has successively resumed import business such as tonnes of bagged copper concentrate, and the resumption of the port has eased the tension at the domestic mine end in the early stage, and it is expected that the domestic copper mine supply will be relatively abundant
after the holiday.
In terms of consumption, affected by the year-end holiday, the weekly copper pole operating rate before the Spring Festival holiday was 34.
54%, a sharp decrease of 22.
1%
from the previous month.
After the Spring Festival, most copper rod enterprises will resume work normally, and the copper rod operating rate will rebound, but due to the impact of downstream resumption time, logistics and transportation, and demand, it is expected that the recovery rate will be limited
.
In terms of stocks, on February 8, the LME destocked 0.
01 million tons to 79,900 tons, and SHFE stocks rose 0.
3 million tons to 22,100 tons
.
Overall, the current fundamental changes are still limited, and the impact of inflation expectations on copper prices is positive, and copper prices may show a volatile pattern
.
