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Trade Service
Yesterday's aluminum prices were mainly volatile, and domestic fundamentals did not change
for the time being.
The main force of Shanghai aluminum closed at 18530 yuan / ton, down 0.
24%, and the night trading was affected by the sharp decline of the US index, further upward
.
Affected by the risk of production cuts and transportation problems in the near future, a small upward rebound is more
likely.
However, the pattern of weak supply and demand in fundamentals has not changed, and the epidemic has also had a greater impact on downstream construction, so there is no large upside at present, and it is expected to still fluctuate within the range, and the resistance to break through 19,000 upward is still large
.
Spot data show that the premium narrowed on Tuesday, the market transaction was average, the downstream still maintained just need to buy, and the short-term positive factors did not stimulate a large amount of speculative demand
.
Overseas, the trade association of five European companies recently sent a joint letter to the European Union, warning that cracking down on Rusal "may cause thousands of European companies to close their doors and add tens of thousands of unemployed people.
"
Fundamentally, with the release of new production capacity and resumption capacity in Sichuan and Inner Mongolia, the total domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is slowly repaired, but the dry period in Yunnan is coming, and it is still necessary to pay attention to whether there is a possibility
of subsequent production reduction and expansion.
On the demand side, recent orders for the automotive and photovoltaic sectors have been good, but the real estate industry is still weak
.
On the whole, low inventory superimposed on the tight spot pattern has some support for aluminum prices, but if the European and American sanctions against Rusal land at the end of the month, the original supply of electrolytic aluminum in Europe and the United States may flow to the domestic market, which will have an impact on the domestic future market, and the current dollar liquidity impact and the weakening of global terminal demand are still the market's worries, short-term recommendations are mainly
wait-and-see.
