There is more interference on the supply side, and Shanghai aluminum continues to fluctuate in the range

In terms of domestic fundamentals, with the arrival of the dry period, it is still necessary to pay attention to whether there is a possibility
of subsequent production reduction and expansion in Yunnan.
In terms of demand, in recent days, the enthusiasm of downstream companies to enter the market is insufficient, and spot transactions are light
.
In terms of inventory, due to the interference of the epidemic and other factors, the arrival of goods after the holiday has been blocked, and the social inventory has remained low, of which it is understood that the Gongyi station is still under closed management, and it is expected that the follow-up inventory will continue to be low
.

The current price is close to the cost from the perspective of valuation, and even some regions have lost money, in the context of low inventory and supply reduction risk, aluminum prices are difficult to fall below the cost support
in the short term.
At present, the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are weak supply and demand, the fundamental contradiction is not large, and the inventory remains low, so the emergence of the inventory inflection point may become a signal of change, if the inventory is always maintained at a low level, it is difficult for the price to break down, on the contrary, if there is accumulation, in the context of macro and fundamental resonance, the possibility of breaking downward will be greater
.

On the whole, there are many supply-side disturbances at home and abroad, but the current US dollar liquidity impact and the expected strengthening of global terminal demand are still the market's concerns, and short-term recommendations are mainly
wait-and-see.