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Thailand's mainstream raw materials rose steadily, Thailand, Vietnam rainfall this week decreased, conducive to the supply of cutting raw materials, domestic cutting, Vietnam is about to enter the production season, supply contraction supports rubber prices, tire operating rate continues to fall month-on-month, demand off-season superimposed on the Spring Festival holiday, short-term demand is in a sluggish state, RU01 contract position reduction is small, there is a trend of receiving goods, long and short divergence, rubber shock
upward.
Futures price difference: On January 9, the main RU closed at 12890 yuan / ton (-5), and the main closing price of NR was 9635 yuan / ton (-55).
RU basis - 565 yuan/ton (+105), NR basis +24 yuan/ton (+32).
RU non-standard price difference of 2165 yuan / ton (+45), tobacco chip import profit 128 yuan / ton (-54).
Spot market: On January 9, the quotation of full latex was 12325 yuan / ton (+100), the quotation of mixed rubber was 10725 yuan / ton (-50), the price of 3L spot was 11600 yuan / ton (+50), the price of STR20# was 1415 US dollars / ton (+10), and the quotation of benzene butadiene was 10600 yuan / ton (0).
Thai Ingredients: Raw film 44.
51 baht/kg (+0.
21), cup glue 39.
50 baht/kg (+0.
45), glue 43.
20 baht/kg (+0.
40), tobacco sheet 47.
05 baht/kg (0).
Domestic raw materials: Yunnan glue 10800 yuan / ton (0), Hainan glue 11350 yuan / ton (0).
As of January 6: total stock on the exchange 186744 (+42), exchange warehouse receipt 173,600 (+3900).
As of January 5, the domestic all-steel tire operating rate was 44.
25% (-0.
45%), and the domestic semi-steel tire operating rate was 51.
52% (-2.
07%)
.
Viewpoint: On the supply side, Thailand's mainstream raw materials rose steadily, and the rainfall in Thailand and Vietnam decreased this week, which is conducive to the supply of cutting raw materials; Domestic cutting stoppage, Vietnam is about to enter the production reduction season, supply contraction supports rubber prices; On the demand side, the downstream tire operating rate continued to decline month-on-month, and domestic downstream demand was in the off-season superimposed on the approaching holiday, and demand was short-term or sluggish; In terms of inventory, social inventories continued to accumulate slightly, exchange warehouse receipt registrations continued to increase under high delivery profits, and RU01 contracts approached the last trading day of delivery, and the decrease in positions was small, and there was a trend of receiving goods
.
In recent months, there is a divergence between long and short, and the rubber shock is the main
one.
