There are many uncertainties in the copper market, and the price continues to rise, and there is limited room for prices

The copper market continued to rebound last week, encouraged by the reopening of the European and American economies, the implementation of the Sino-US trade agreement and strong Chinese import data
.
Back to the copper market, the domestic import window is still open, the spot premium is high, the refined waste ratio is at a low level, and the domestic is in the destocking stage driven by consumption to continue to support
copper prices.
However, the impact of the foreign epidemic on domestic consumption is gradually emerging, domestic export enterprises are in a state of nothing to do, and the refined waste ratio has begun to rise, and the supply of scrap copper is increasing
.
Peruvian copper mines are beginning to return to normal and will recover 80% of production within a month, and the upward momentum of copper prices is slowly weakening
.

Industry News:

1.
President of Peru: Peru will extend nationwide lockdown measures until May 24; Peru is close to controlling the spread of the new coronavirus; Some economic activity will restart
in the coming days.

2.
On Thursday, a Peruvian union leader said that Chalco's Toromocho copper mine in Peru had ceased production
after four miners tested positive for the new coronavirus.
The union wants to test
all 600 workers at the mine.
In 2019, Toromocho produced 190,000 tons of copper and 284 tons of molybdenum
.

3.
Data released by Chile's copper commission Cochilco on Thursday showed that Chile's large copper mines expanded production in March, and Chile's national copper company increased
production sharply, according to data released on Thursday.
Among them: Codelco production increased by 14.
8% year-on-year to 147,600 tons, and production jumped 4.
2% to 386,600 tons in the first quarter; Escondida production increased by 0.
9% year-on-year to 101,800 tons; and Collahuasi mine production increased by 6.
8% year-on-year to 50,400 tons
.

Fundamental changes: 1) Domestic refined copper destocking continued, downstream wire and cable factories continued to operate at a high level, and the peak season effect of consumption driven by infrastructure construction was still obvious; 2) Copper concentrate TC fell slightly again, now at a low level since 2018, Peru extended the lockdown period again, Chile's main copper mine production has little impact, domestic refined copper production in April is not greatly affected, although there was maintenance in May, but the volume is limited, the impact of overseas ore supply contraction, short-term has not been effectively transmitted to the smelting link
.

Last week, copper prices broke above the 60-day moving average upwards, and the price held firm at the 43,000 line
.
The logic of copper price operation has not changed significantly, strong reality vs weak expectations still exist, short-term strong destocking superimposed on overseas ore supply contraction, forming support for fundamentals, but from a long-term perspective, ore supply disturbance is a phased phenomenon, and there are many uncertainties in the transmission to the domestic smelting link, and seasonal destocking and consumption season will eventually weaken, the epidemic damage to some intra-year demand is irreversible, and the pressure of external demand may become more obvious
in the late second quarter 。 The upward trend of copper prices is more entangled, Shanghai copper continues to have limited upward space, pay more attention to protect profits, in addition, with the gradual lifting of the ban overseas, London copper upward repair space may be larger, Shanghai London ratio has the risk of weakening, internal and external reverse set attention to leave the market
.