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On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 14225 yuan / ton in the morning, and the beginning of the session slightly touched 14265 yuan / ton after opening a stepped decline, the afternoon low touched 14125 yuan / ton, closed at 14140 yuan / ton, Shanghai aluminum index position increased by 6254 hands to 653858 lots, in the short term, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity maintained a slow pace of launch, the weakening of the consumption side has become a foregone conclusion, the decline in aluminum ingot inventory has narrowed, and the inflection point of aluminum rod inventory stop decline and return to increase has appeared, which is also confirmed from the side.
The cost side is still in the downward channel, has not yet seen signs of stabilization, alumina and anode prices have fallen, the future complete cost low to touch 13800 yuan / ton is not impossible, so the medium-term fundamental pressure is still there, superimposed on the Sino-US trade dispute continues to ferment, at present, the bearish factors are still greater than the positive factors, short-term aluminum prices maintain a weak trend
.
In terms of the external market, in the morning, Lun aluminum opened at 2179.
5 US dollars / ton, the beginning of the session slightly touched 2185.
5 US dollars / ton after entering the downward mode, into the European trading session, the dollar rebounded, Lun aluminum continued to decline, the low touched 2159 US dollars / ton, as of 18:13, Lun aluminum reported 2162.
5 US dollars / ton, summer in addition to the domestic off-season, but also overseas consumption off-season, mainly because the consumption area is mostly in the northern hemisphere, At the same time, Rusal resumed production at the Friguia alumina plant in Guinea on Wednesday, which has been suspended for 6 years, so the marginal overseas fundamentals are also weak changes, but at the same time, China's aluminum exports have declined month-on-month, and Lun aluminum is expected to maintain a weak shock market
.
In terms of market, Shanghai transaction concentration is 14080~14110 yuan / ton, the discount for the month is 50~40 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction concentration is 14080~14110 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration is 14130~14140 yuan / ton
.
Holders have a positive attitude towards shipment, but the aluminum has been going all the way down, the market is in a wait-and-see mood, the spot price is lowered with the market, and the discount is maintained at 50~40 yuan / ton, and the downstream is maintained as just needed, and the overall transaction is poor
.
In the late afternoon, aluminum dived, and East China quoted 14050~14080 yuan / ton, and it was difficult to see the transaction
.
In terms of inventory, during the day, the aluminum warehouse receipt of the previous period was 779557 tons, down 2524 tons
from the previous trading day.
As of June 25, LME aluminum stocks fell by 4,625 tonnes to 1,123,700 tonnes
.
On the whole, the decline in inventory may decrease under the weakening of downstream consumption, resulting in pressure on Shanghai aluminum
.
Technically, the daily K-line fell below the 5-day moving average, the MACD indicator green column amplified, and it is expected that the main force of Shanghai aluminum 1808 oscillating operation, the operating range of 14000--14500, for reference
only.
