The weakening of the Shanghai aluminum shock is expected to further pullback

At the macro level, the Trump farce has gradually fallen, the epidemic in Europe and the United States has further lost control, the domestic imported epidemic has begun to rise, and the risk concerns of the capital market have risen.

After the concentrated release of favorable domestic benefits in the early stage, the price of non-ferrous metals has been adjusted
to varying degrees.

In terms of the market, the spot price continued to fall rapidly below 16,000 during the week, with cargo holders actively shipping, middlemen bargaining on the dip, and passive downstream receiving goods
.

On the demand side, from the perspective of downstream operating rate, processing fees and spot premium performance, real demand did decrease month-on-month
.

On the supply side, aluminum production hit a record high in December, and there are still expectations of large imports of primary aluminum under import profits, so supply expectations remain high
.
This means that there is a situation of supply and demand at the margin, that is, the fundamentals begin to show an inflection point compared with the previous period, and the pressure of social inventory to accumulate in advance is relatively large
.
In addition, after the Spring Festival, it is another accumulation cycle, so for Shanghai Aluminum at this time, the willingness to actively pull up declines
.

On the whole, the pressure area of Hulun aluminum has different degrees of correction, Shanghai aluminum fluctuates greatly, short-term continuous rapid decline, is expected to further pullback, short-term material volatility is the mainstay
.