The weak pattern of supply and demand continues Shanghai copper is still dominated by a shock pattern

On the macro front, the US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index recorded -9 in May, the lowest since
May 2020.
Total new home sales in the United States fell to their lowest level since the early days of the pandemic in April
.
This series of economic data made the dollar lose the 102 mark
.
However, this has also put copper prices under slight pressure
due to concerns about the demand outlook.

On the supply side, domestic copper mine TC continued to fall slightly by $0.
72 to $78.
56/mt
last week.
According to Mysteel, the Las bambas copper miners in Peru, a subsidiary of Minmetals, went on strike again, and the interference signal of raw material supply once again appeared
.
At the same time, copper concentrate port inventories rose another 150,000 tons from the previous week to 895,000 tons, indicating that logistics across the country are still not smooth
.
However, due to the relatively intensive maintenance of domestic refineries since mid-to-late May, the overall decline in TC prices is not large
.
TC is expected to decline slightly and to a relatively limited
extent in June as refinery overhauls are completed.

In terms of consumption, due to the deep back of the term structure of Shanghai copper at the beginning of the week, downstream receiving goods is relatively cautious
.
After the change of month, the market activity increases, and the downstream concentrated replenishment, thereby pushing up the discount quotation
.
At the same time, the price difference of refined waste is lower than a reasonable range, which is conducive to refined copper consumption
.
However, terminal demand is still relatively weak, and orders are not ideal
.
As a result, primary processing enterprises are mainly based on long-term order procurement, and the transaction of bulk orders is still slightly light
.
This kind of local fabric gradually changed after June as the impact of the epidemic gradually receded
.

In terms of stocks, LME stocks fell by 0.
05 million tonnes to 170,700 tonnes yesterday and SHFE stocks fell by 0.
17 million tonnes to 196,400 tonnes
.

Overall, the current epidemic has continued to weaken the pattern of supply and demand, but this situation will change
in the next June and July as the smelting overhaul ends and the impact of the epidemic fades.
The actual recovery in supply may be earlier than demand, coupled with the inflow of imported copper, so supply is expected to be slightly excessive
.
It is expected that the price of the future market will still be dominated
by a volatile pattern.
When the demand is further confirmed, the price is expected to show a strong pattern
again.