The US dollar index remained firm, and the main force of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated and fell

Market focus: US retail sales recorded 0.
7% m/m in July, the biggest increase in four months, well above the previous reading of 0.
3% and market expectations of 0.
3%.

From January to July 2019, the national real estate development investment was 7,284.
3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.
6%, and the growth rate was 0.
3 percentage points
lower than that from January to June.
From January to July, vehicle production totaled 13.
933 million units, down 13.
5% y/y, and sales totaled 14.
132 million units, down 11.
4%
y/y.
The output of primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) in July was 2.
984 million tons, down 2.
0% year-on-year; Alumina output in July was 6.
222 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.
9%; The output of aluminum alloy in July was 820,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.
1%; Aluminum output in July was 4.
251 million tons, down 5.
3%
year-on-year.

Spot analysis, on August 16, spot A00 aluminum quotation of 14220-14260 yuan / ton, the average price of 14240 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton
from the previous trading day.
The intraday market supply is relatively sufficient, the holders actively ship, but slightly strong, the difference between the high and low prices of aluminum ingots is not large, the middlemen are also active, and the trading of buyers and sellers is
acceptable.
In addition, after several days of wait-and-see downstream, due to production needs, it finally began to show the state of stocking, and the purchase volume increased significantly compared with previous days
.

Warehouse receipt inventory, the total of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Friday was 148676 tons, a daily decrease of 802 tons; On August 15, LME aluminum stocks were 976,700 tons, a daily decrease of 7,550 tons
.
In the week ended August 16, the Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum inventory was 387663 tons, down 3,804 tons
per week.

The main position, the top 20 long positions of the main 1910 contract of Shanghai aluminum 102564 lots, minus 2124 lots per day, short positions 120871 lots, daily minus 2375 lots, net short positions 18307 lots, daily minus 251 lots, long and short are reduced, net short slightly reduced
.

On August 16, the main 1910 contract of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated and fell
.
The US dollar index remained firm due to much better-than-expected retail sales data in July, while upstream alumina prices continued to be low, putting pressure on aluminum prices, but midstream electrolytic aluminum inventories continued to deteriorate, as well as downstream aluminum rod inventories falling and prices rebounding, which was positive for aluminum prices
.
In terms of spot, the intraday market supply is relatively sufficient, the holders actively ship, but the price is slightly strong, the difference between the high and low prices of aluminum ingot spot is not large, the middleman is also active, and the buyer and seller are trading
fairly.
Technically, the main 1910 contract of Shanghai aluminum focuses on the support of the 14,000 position below, and it is expected that the short-term shock will be strong
.