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On Monday, the main 2011 contract of Shanghai aluminum opened high and volatile, with a maximum of 14,600 yuan / ton and a minimum of 14,430 yuan / ton during the day, closing at 14,595 yuan / ton, up 1.
21% from the previous trading day's close; In the external market, LME aluminum fluctuated at a high level, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 1846.
5 US dollars / ton, down 0.
03%
on a daily basis.
Market focus: (1) US President Trump and House Speaker Pelosi accused each other of being responsible for the lack of progress in stimulus negotiations, but White House economic adviser Kudlow predicted that negotiations would continue
.
(2) Hydro's Paragominas bauxite mine maintenance work has been completed, and its production at the Alunorte alumina refinery in Brazil will pick up
.
Spot analysis: On October 12, spot A00 aluminum reported 14920-14960 yuan / ton, the average price was 14940 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 90 yuan / ton
.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that the market mainly shipped at low prices, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods was general, and the downstream just needed to purchase, and the trading performance was flat
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: the total amount of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 121395 tons, an increase of 11,605 tons per day; On October 9, LME aluminum stocks were 1416325 tons, a daily decrease of 6,750 tons, a continuous decline of 37 days
.
As of the week of October 9, the previous period of Shanghai aluminum inventory reported 227938 tons, a weekly increase of 4784 tons
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2011 contract were 67062 lots, a daily increase of 1031 lots, short positions were 85382 lots, a daily increase of 7138 lots, net short positions were 18320 lots, a daily increase of 6107 lots, long and short increased, net space increased
.
Market research and judgment: On October 12, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 2011 opened high.
The resumption of bipartisan negotiations in the United States and the continued spread of the epidemic, the market widely expects that a new stimulus plan will be launched, and the dollar index is under pressure; At the same time, China's manufacturing industry continued its growth trend in September, market demand performed better, and overseas demand also improved, and Lun aluminum inventory continued to degrade during the National Day, and the decline expanded, supporting aluminum prices
.
However, the new production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is also gradually released, and high profits have also stimulated the launch of idle production capacity; In addition, the opening of the import profit window stimulates the continuous inflow of overseas goods and restricts the upward momentum
of aluminum prices.
Technically, the main 2011 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased its position above the previous high, and the daily MACD indicator golden cross is expected to fluctuate
at a short-term high.
