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On Tuesday, the main 2105 contract of Shanghai copper encountered obstacles to the upside, with a maximum of 67490 yuan / ton, a minimum of 15810 yuan / ton, and a closing price of 66120 yuan / ton, up 0.
38% from the previous trading day's closing price; Externally, LME copper fell under pressure, and as of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was reported at $8856.
5 / ton, down 1.
67%
on a daily basis.
Market focus: (1) The U.
S.
House of Representatives will vote on the latest version of the epidemic assistance bill passed by the Senate on Tuesday local time, and the House is expected to pass the bill
.
U.
S.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the pandemic relief bill is unlikely to cause inflation problems
.
(2) The United States exported 10,100 copper cathodes in January, down from 10,900 tons in December 2020; the United States imported 42,100 tons of copper cathode in January, down from 57,200 tons in December 2020
.
Spot analysis: On March 9, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 66420-66700 yuan / ton, with an average price of 66560 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 80 yuan / ton
.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that traders adjusted prices and shipments, and the downstream still just needed to be the mainstay, and the transaction was
acceptable.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 90,666 tons on Tuesday, an increase of 2,998 tons per day; On March 8, LME copper stocks stood at 84,250 tonnes, up 5,225 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2105 contract were 82409 lots, a daily increase of 4216 lots, short positions were 82962 lots, a daily increase of 243 lots, a net short position of 553 lots, a daily decrease of 3973 lots, both long and short increases, and net space decreased
.
Market research and judgment: On March 9, the upward movement of Shanghai copper 2105 was blocked
.
The optimistic progress of the US $1.
9 trillion stimulus plan, coupled with the Federal Reserve's statement that it is still not enough to stimulate the Fed to raise interest rates, and rising expectations of economic growth and inflation, have strengthened US Treasury yields and the US dollar
.
Upstream domestic copper mine inventories have fallen sharply, and processing fees TC have continued to decline, resulting in high smelting costs, and the epidemic situation in Peru has not improved, and the tension in copper mines is difficult to change
.
The performance of downstream domestic demand is still weak, but although domestic inventories have entered the accumulation cycle, they are still significantly lower than the same period of previous years; With the arrival of the traditional peak season in March and April, downstream demand is still expected to improve, which supports copper prices
.
Technically, the Shanghai copper 2105 contract has a large long-short divergence in the near future, focusing on the 20-day moving average support, and it is expected that the short-term shock adjustment
.
