The upward driving force of aluminum prices is insufficient and there is still room for downside in the medium and long term

On September 1, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum futures opened at 18235 yuan, and today's intraday high touched 18430 yuan, and the lowest test was 18110 yuan; As of the morning close, the main force of Shanghai aluminum fell 1.
12% to 18140 yuan
.
In the external market, as of now, LME aluminum opened at $2360.
50, the highest price was $2363.
00, the lowest price was $2333.
00, and now it is at $
2341.
50.

On the macro front, the US ADP employment data is far less than expected, the eurozone and the Fed are competing to raise interest rates, energy interference with the industry and the recession caused by controlling inflation are the main factors for the weakening of the external market; The domestic national standing meeting yesterday said that it will continue to vigorously implement stable growth, policy sentiment has improved, Guangdong local governments promote the consumption of home appliances, and the old trade-in subsidy of 50%~70% will boost domestic market confidence
.

In terms of fundamentals, Zhongfu and Daystar, which reduced production in Sichuan in the early stage, have begun to resume production, and their marginal production capacity continues to increase, but there are still small factories in Europe that have reduced production one after another, and the scale is limited; In terms of spot trading, the increase in arrivals in East China was weak, Foshan had a large discount to futures and performed fairly, and the performance of aluminum rods was weak
.

In terms of the market, according to the statistics of the Dashang spot trading platform, the quotation of East China A00 aluminum ingots is 18290-18340 yuan / ton, and the average price is 18315 yuan / ton, down 45 yuan / ton from the previous day; The average price of liter discount is -65 yuan / ton, up 20
from the previous day.
South China A00 aluminum ingot quotation 18200-18260 yuan / ton, the average price of 18230 yuan / ton, down 45 yuan / ton from the previous day; The average price of liter discount was -150 yuan / ton, up 20
from the previous day.

Sichuan-Chongqing area has begun to resume production, it is expected to take at least 2 months, with the end of high temperature weather and the arrival of the peak season in September, consumption may improve month-on-month, and aluminum prices are expected to remain strong in the short term; However, the impact of power cuts has basically ended, and oversupply is expected to exist in the second half of the year, and the upward driving force of aluminum prices is insufficient, and aluminum prices still have downward space
in the medium and long term.
It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the consumption side and the commissioning of new production capacity, as well as the changes
in domestic social inventory.