The upward drive of aluminum prices weakened, and it is difficult to rise sharply in the short term

On the macro front, the domestic CPI rose 0.
9% year-on-year in January, 1.
5% in the previous month, and 0.
4%
month-on-month.
PPI rose 9.
1% year-on-year, 10.
3% in the previous month, and decreased 0.
2% month-on-month; Industrial producer purchase prices rose 12.
1% year-on-year and decreased 0.
4%
month-on-month.
The data shows that the overall domestic inflation pressure is not high, and the price of raw materials is stable compared with the fourth quarter of last year, which also suggests that there is still some room
for monetary policy to be loosened.
The release of the Fed minutes emphasized the possibility of a rate hike in March, but did not hint at whether a sharp rate hike in March was possible, and did not mention other details
of the balance sheet reduction.
Market interpretation is dovish, the dollar retreats, and U.
S.
stocks turn higher
.

In terms of news, Guangxi Baise recently gradually ended orderly control
.
According to Steel Union, more than 75% of the city's aluminum enterprises have produced normally, and the output of alumina meets the production needs
of electrolytic aluminum.
The impact of real production weakened than expected, and the support of aluminum prices weakened
.
In terms of resumption of production, at present, the resumption of production of some enterprises in Yunnan has not accelerated, and some areas have also been affected by the epidemic, and the output in Shanxi has increased
slightly recently.
Overall, the domestic supply of electrolytic aluminum in the first quarter did not increase significantly, in line with expectations
.

In terms of the market, with the resumption of work, the overall atmosphere of spot trading in East China continued to improve yesterday, and the transaction was positive
.
The supply of goods in South China has increased, and the willingness to purchase downstream has also continued to rise
.
Downstream processing enterprises in Henan gradually resumed work, and market transactions picked up
slightly.

In terms of inventory, aluminum stocks in the LME market continued to fall back to 857,000 tons, but the cancellation of warehouse receipts increased by 10,000 tons, spot contracts maintained a high premium, and aluminum ingot import losses continued to remain at about 1,000 yuan / ton, which was still not enough to attract imports
.
Strong
support.

Overall, maintain the basic judgment of the medium term, that is, the uncertainty of domestic and foreign aluminum supply reduction continues, the improvement of the consumption side is clear, and the relatively low inventory under the holiday accumulation is not as expected as expected, which is amplifying the impact of supply and demand disturbances, in line with previous expectations
.
In the medium term, it is still recommended to buy on the dip and participate in the peak season rise
.
At present, the pressure range observed since the fourth quarter of last year of 23,000 yuan / ton has not been successful, and the price is facing certain pullback pressure in the short term, but the range is limited
.