The upper selling pressure is still heavier, and the Shanghai copper rushes back down

External trend: Asian Lun copper under pressure and heavy decline, of which the 3-month London copper operating range of 5600-5523 US dollars / ton, now down more than 1.
5% to 5524 US dollars / ton, the first decline in six trading days, and sharply cut the cumulative gain of the previous five days (2.
07%), fell below
the moving average group.
In terms of positions, the position of London copper was 338,000 lots, an increase of 1,111 lots per day, and copper prices have recovered in the past week, indicating that short orders actively profit from the dip, and the sentiment of the copper market is still relatively sluggish
.

Macro: The Asian dollar index extended its decline and is now trading around 97.
6, a six-month low
.
As the market fears President Trump's impeachment
.
But the weak dollar index did not give base metals much boost
.
In addition, the price growth rate of new commercial housing in 30 of China's 70 large and medium-sized cities in April fell month-on-month, an increase of 6 from March, and 23 of the cities that fell were first- and second-tier cities, indicating that real estate control policies adapted to local conditions and urban policies continue to play a role
.
In the copper industry, the latest report from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) showed that the global copper market had an oversupply of 148,000 tons from January to March this year, compared with 66,000 tons in the same period last year, indicating that the excess has widened as global copper consumption decelerated more than supply
.

In terms of market: on May 18, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot traded at a discount of 60 yuan / ton - 10 yuan / ton for the current month's contract, the transaction price of flat water copper was 44900 yuan / ton - 45080 yuan / ton, and the trading price of premium copper was 44920-45100 yuan / ton
.
Shanghai copper fell back to around 45,000 yuan / ton, the willingness of holders to raise prices decreased, the copper discount gradually expanded, and the plate fell together, middlemen waited and watched, because the discount has not reached the psychological price, downstream demand is the mainstay, the market has begun to show a pattern of oversupply
.
In the later stage, the market generally expects that with the new batch of imported copper entering the domestic market, it is difficult to maintain stability at the current copper discount, and the stalemate pattern will be broken
.

The Shanghai copper 1707 contract continued to fall to 44960 yuan / ton under pressure during the day, indicating that the topside selling pressure is still heavy, while China's key data released this week for April did not perform well, exacerbating market concerns about China's economic slowdown, while ignoring the decline
of the dollar index.
It is recommended that the Shanghai copper 1707 contract can be backed by 45800 yuan below the sky, the entry reference is around 45200 yuan, and the target is around
44700 yuan.