The trend of Shanghai aluminum is relatively weak, and the trend of high volatility has not been broken

On Thursday, the national average price of alumina was 2360 yuan / ton, down 1 yuan
from last Thursday.
Affected by the news of the production reduction of Brazil's Hydro alumina plant, since late August, domestic alumina prices have continued to rebound, but the rebound is relatively limited, while the price of Western Australian alumina FOB has rebounded greatly
.
The overall alumina market has a bullish atmosphere
.

Although the price of electrolytic aluminum has continued to fall in recent days, the profit of electrolytic aluminum smelting is still very high
.
At present, based on the plate price, the profit of electrolytic aluminum smelting is about 2050 yuan / ton, which is still at a historical high, stimulating the accelerated production
of electrolytic aluminum.
It is understood that the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in August was about 220,000 tons, and the production capacity was about 410,000 tons, which was lower than market expectations
.

Domestic electrolytic aluminum production in July totaled 3.
096 million tons, an increase of 3.
1% year-on-year and 2.
7% month-on-month, and the output hit a record high
since 2016.
In the past three months, the production of electrolytic aluminum has been increasing, which verifies the fact that
the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing.
In addition, because the import profit window continues to open, the import volume of primary aluminum in July and August also hit a record high for many years, and the supply pressure of electrolytic aluminum is indeed increasing
.

Electrolytic aluminum social stocks totaled 719,000 tons on Thursday, down 01,000 tons from the previous month, and last week's aluminum stocks increased by 03,000 tons to 247,000 tons
.
Whether it is social inventory or the inventory of the previous period, there are signs of turning upward, but as far as the current inventory level is concerned, the inventory pressure is not large
.
Supply increased while inventories remained virtually unchanged, indicating better
consumption.

July and August are the traditional off-season for the aluminum industry, but in the rising production of electrolytic aluminum, domestic inventories have not increased significantly, which has led to the price of electrolytic aluminum in the off-season is still relatively strong
.
At present, the market will gradually come out of the off-season, if electrolytic aluminum inventories can still maintain a low level, or even decline, then aluminum prices may further rise
.