The trend of Shanghai aluminum has fallen, and the upward momentum can be weakened

Market focus: (1) The number of ADP payrolls in the United States increased by only 307,000 in November, less than the expected 430,000 and less than the expected 365,000
.
(2) U.
S.
House Speaker Pelosi and Senate Democratic leader Schumer called for immediate negotiations on an economic stimulus package, and the $908 billion bipartisan proposal should be used as the basis
for negotiations.
(3) According to Mysteel data, as of December 3, the spot inventory of China's main electrolytic aluminum market was 607,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons
from Monday.
(4) Antaike said that China's aluminum market is expected to face a gap of 50,000 tons this year and an oversupply of 400,000 tons
next year.

Spot analysis: On December 3, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 16830-16870 yuan / ton, with an average price of 16850 yuan / ton, down 230 yuan / ton
daily.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that the circulation supply is sufficient, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is general, and downstream procurement has rebounded
slightly.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 85,751 tons on Thursday, a daily decrease of 400 tons, down 13 consecutive days; On December 2, LME aluminum stocks were 1364175 tons, a daily decrease of 3,950 tons, a continuous decline of 11 days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2101 contract are 76246 lots, daily minus 5253 lots, short positions are 95212 lots, daily minus 9889 lots, net short positions are 18966 lots, daily minus 4636 lots, long and short are reduced, net space is reduced
.

Market research and judgment: On December 3, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 2101 fell
sharply.
The US dollar index extended weakness
on the gloomy November ADP data and rising expectations of a new stimulus package.
Domestic electrolytic aluminum market demand maintained a good performance, domestic spot and Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts showed a downward trend, and aluminum prices were still supported
.
However, the price of alumina continues to weaken, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum production is high, which stimulates the production capacity in the medium and long term; Coupled with the recent expansion of import arbitrage, the inflow of overseas goods is expected to increase, inventory dematerialization is expected to slow down, and the upward momentum of aluminum prices can weaken.

Technically, the main 2101 contract of Shanghai aluminum has reduced its position, and the mainstream long position reduction is large, and it is expected that the short-term width adjustment will be made
.