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On Thursday 13th, the trend of rubber was adjusted in a narrow range, and the price of raw materials in overseas production areas has risen continuously in recent days, and the daily rubber has strengthened
simultaneously.
The supply side has entered a low production period, which has supported
rubber prices.
The downstream of China has gradually started construction this week, and the inflection point of epidemic data outside Hubei has appeared, which has boosted the market
.
The impact of short-term external disturbances has not been completely eliminated, the market is still concerned about the changes in the epidemic, Shanghai rubber shock is higher, but still in a low position, continuous rebound support is insufficient, this week continue to pay attention to the pressure above 11500, due to the continued strength of the external market, it is recommended that short orders temporarily leave the market
.
In terms of fundamentals, southern Thailand is approaching the mid-February shutdown period, and the current heavy leaf loss of gum trees and arid weather conditions may affect rubber
tapping.
At present, tire factories are gradually resuming work, but affected by transportation, shortage of personnel, etc.
, the proportion of resumption of work is low, rubber mainly uses inventory, spot procurement is not strong
.
In terms of warehouses, there is a large backlog of goods in the port, and the future inbound volume is expected to increase
rapidly.
In terms of price, synthetic rubber is currently 10300-10400 yuan, mixed glue is 10900-11000 yuan, and the replacement of synthetic rubber still exists
.
Overall, the absolute price of natural rubber is currently low, and after the gradual easing of the epidemic, rubber demand is expected to recover rapidly, strengthening price support, and there are medium-term market opportunities
.
In terms of trading strategy, changes in the epidemic are still the core factors affecting rubber prices, and the short-term market expects cautious trading and expected market fluctuations
.
In terms of arbitrage, the far month contract is expected to be stronger than the front month contract, and the position is short 5 more than 1 combination
.
In terms of short-term trading, intraday trading is the mainstay
.
In the medium term, the RU2009 contract is waiting for a pullback and has a long layout
.
