The trend of aluminum prices is weak, and the problem of dumping reserves has a greater impact on market sentiment

The recent trend of aluminum prices is weak, Yunnan's peak shifting production is gradually alleviating, and the dumping of reserves is still pending
.
Although spot stocks maintained a premium, the dumping of reserves made the preference of funds for Shanghai aluminum decline, and the position steadily declined
.
Shanghai is also dragged down by Shanghai aluminum, and the import loss has further widened
.
In the short term, the problem of dumping reserves has a greater
impact on sentiment.

On the macro front, the United States released inflation data on Thursday, and the Fed's ultra-loose monetary policy stance is expected to be adjusted; PPI increased 9% year-on-year in May; NDRC: Study further strengthening commodity price monitoring and early warning and market supervision
.
The global economy is still in the recovery stage, demand is strong, while monetary policy is in the swing stage, tightening expectations are gradually increasing, and the range of two-way fluctuations in metals has increased; Power cuts and production cuts in various places have aggravated the supply shortage, but there have been rumors of recent storage dumping, while the pressure of regulatory policies has not abated, and the market sentiment is sluggish, it is recommended to wait and see
.

On the supply side, with the increase of rainfall in Yunnan, Yunnan Power Grid notified that the orderly electricity consumption of the province will be terminated before the end of June, and it is expected that Yunnan's supply will show a marginal improvement in July, while an aluminum plant in Guizhou may stop production of 100,000 tons of production capacity at the end of June due to index problems, and supply disruptions are continuous
.
The comprehensive supply and demand ends will show strong support, the expansion of supply disruption weakens the impact of the upcoming consumption off-season, inventories continue to decline in June, and it is difficult to significantly increase
inventories in July.
At the macro level, it is in the mutual game of domestic policy pressure and overseas loosening, and it may be difficult for aluminum prices to continue to rise unilaterally, especially in the domestic concern about storage dumping, and it is expected that aluminum prices as a whole will continue to fluctuate
at a high level and widely.