The trend of aluminum is volatile and there is still a risk of a sharp pullback

In terms of spot, spot aluminum prices are strong, and the overall transaction of the market is good
.
On the demand side, China's import and export data in September performed strongly, indicating that China's economy maintained its recovery momentum and domestic market demand performed better
.

Macro: The dust has basically settled in the US election, Biden's election is almost a foregone conclusion, the market has good expectations for his anti-epidemic, infrastructure investment and trade cooperation, and the market macro sentiment has improved
.
The dollar index continued to weaken last week, supporting commodity prices, and analysts believe that the downward trend of the Biden dollar index will continue for some time to come; In terms of the epidemic, the epidemic situation in Europe is still high-pressure, and many countries have tightened epidemic prevention measures, and the macro perspective is generally intertwined with long and short
.

On the supply side: data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that primary aluminum production in September increased by 7.
9% year-on-year, with a record average daily output; Alumina prices were subdued
with alumina production of 6.
56 million mt in September, the second consecutive month of record highs.
According to data released by IAI, global aluminum production in September was 5.
424 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.
9%.

The profit of supply-side smelters remained high, the industry's production capacity was further released in October, the operating rate of the electrolytic aluminum industry continued to rise, and the supply side was weak
in the fourth quarter.
Cost side: The cost of alumina continued to rebound slightly to 12,920 yuan on Friday, and the profit of alumina production remained at a high level
.

In terms of water premium: the domestic Yangtze River nonferrous spot water will be adjusted by 20 yuan / ton to 80 yuan / ton
.
In terms of stocks: LME stocks were dematerialized by 6,275 tons to 1,437,700 tons on Friday, and the stocks in the previous period decreased by 1,630 tons last week to 231,700 tons, and the social bank decreased by 10,000 tons compared with the statistics on November 2 to 659,000 tons
, according to the data on November 2.
On the whole, the production of electrolytic aluminum has not increased significantly, and the destocking of the social library continues, and the fundamentals are acceptable
.

In the future, the supply side with the acceleration of the resumption of production by aluminum enterprises, the supply side capacity is further released, while the downstream start remains stable, and the new production capacity in October further releases a certain suppression of electrolytic aluminum prices, limiting the upward momentum of aluminum prices, but China's low social inventory still supports aluminum prices
to a certain extent.
Macroscopically, the epidemic has been repeated overseas, and there is uncertainty
about the economic impact of the epidemic.

Overall, the global manufacturing recovery is strong, aluminum fundamentals have improved, and after Biden's victory, the market has better expectations for more stimulus policies after the election, and the overall macro sentiment is better
.
It is expected that the short-term aluminum price trend will continue to fluctuate, the current Shanghai aluminum speculative atmosphere is strong, be wary of long profit exit, large pullback risk, strategy is mainly wait-and-see, the pullback range is large can be long
.