The tone at home and abroad is still differentiated, and Shanghai aluminum is mainly wait-and-see for the time being

In the macro aspect, the tone at home and abroad is still divergent, with most of the monetary policies of major economies led by the United States tightening, and the domestic side emphasizing the goal of stable growth, but based on the impact of the current epidemic, the implementation of domestic policies will be relatively delayed
.

From a fundamental point of view, the situation in Russia and Ukraine has not been signaled to intensify the conflict for the time being, and although energy prices are still at a high level, it is foreseeable that the overseas drive will weaken
in the short term.

Domestically, the epidemic has not affected the production of electrolytic aluminum, but the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises has declined, and the export of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has been blocked and began to accumulate.

This Monday, compared with last Thursday, SMM aluminum ingots destocked 05,000 tons, aluminum rods destocked 06,400 tons
.
However, the outbound volume is still declining, indicating that the probability of destocking is caused by the impact of transportation upstream to storage
.
It is recommended to pay attention to Thursday's inventory data
.

However, most of the demand has only been temporarily suppressed, and the backlog of orders is large, and the demand will be repaired when the epidemic eases, so there is no need to be overly pessimistic
about the current poor fundamental data.

In summary, the epidemic control is improving, but the downstream demand is still suppressed, and the long-term will continue to maintain a more thinking, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being, and wait for the epidemic to improve after the layout of the dip
.