The technical picture is weak, and the low volatility of Shanghai rubber is expected to continue

The opening price of the Shanghai rubber night market RU1901 contract was 11230 yuan / ton, the highest price was 11330 yuan / ton, the lowest price was 11225 yuan / ton, and the closing price was 11285 yuan / ton; Up 55 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.
49%.

The opening price of the Nippon 1903 contract is 161 yen/kg, the highest price is 161.
6 yen/kg, the lowest price is 158.
2 yen/kg, and the closing price is 161.
5 yen/kg; The trading volume was 3984 lots, and the position volume was 10022 lots
.

Domestic sales area market quotation: Shanghai market, Yunnan 17 years full latex quotation 10200/10400 (-200/-50) yuan / ton; Shandong market, Yunnan 17-year full latex quotation 10250/10300 (-100/-150) yuan / ton; Hengshui market, Yunnan 17-year whole milk tax quotation 10600 (-100) yuan / ton, Yunnan market, 17 years full latex quotation 10400 (0) yuan / ton
.

The warehouse receipts of natural rubber futures in the previous period decreased by 1630 tons
compared with yesterday.
The warehouse receipt of natural rubber futures in the previous period was reported at 512090 tons
.
Among them, Shanghai decreased by 540 tons, Yunnan decreased by 300 tons, Shandong increased by 330 tons, Tianjin decreased by 1120 tons, and Hainan Ping
.

As of October 16, 2018, rubber stocks in Qingdao Free Trade Zone fell by 31%.

The inventory of natural rubber and synthetic rubber continued the sharp adjustment at the end of September
.
Among them, 52,100 tons of natural rubber, 56,300 tons of synthetic rubber and 36,000 tons of compound rubber, a total of 112,000 tons, a decrease of 50,600 tons
from the previous data release date.

The Shanghai rubber RU1901 contract weakened intraday volatility on Wednesday and stabilized
overnight.
From the 60-minute K-line chart, the K-line returned to above the short-term moving average, and the technical indicator MACD green column turned red; On the daily chart, the K line is below the 5-day moving average, and the technical indicator MACD green bar continues
.
The volume and position increased, and the technical picture was weak
.
The top 20 members held positions, long 77037 (+619), short 104002 (-538), net short 26965 lots
.

Views and Suggestions:

In January and October, affected by the "November" long holiday and the complex and changeable external environment, there were some fluctuations in manufacturing supply and demand, and the manufacturing PMI was 50.
2%, down 0.
6 percentage points
from the previous month.
In October, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 53.
9%, down 1.
0 percentage points
from the previous month.
In October, the comprehensive PMI output index was 53.
1%, down 1.
0 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises continued to expand, but the growth rate slowed down
.
Among them, the manufacturing production index and the non-manufacturing business activity index, which constitute the composite PMI output index, were 52.
0% and 53.
9% respectively, both falling
month-on-month.

2.
According to the latest news, Tonio Tire will increase the price of tires in the
US market from January 1, 2019.
Products involved include: Extensa A/S, Extensa HP II, Pro.
4 Plus and Versado Noir series passenger car tires; Open Country Q/T, Open Country A/T II, Open Country R/T, and Open Country M/T series light truck and SUV tires
.
Except for the TYYO M3Z series, the price of tires for other commercial vehicles will be increased by 2%.

As of the close of the night trading 11-01 price spread closed at 1210 yuan / ton, the plate premium mixed spot 985-1185 yuan / ton
.
The stock on the exchange exceeded 510,000 tons, the inventory in the bonded zone continued to decline, the inventory outside the zone fell, and the situation of outbound storage outside the zone improved, and there were also factors
of warehouse transfer.
Poor terminal demand has formed an industry consensus, only 4 of the 9 listed tire companies have achieved positive growth in operating income, and the pressure on rubber supply in the fourth quarter has not decreased, and the fundamentals have not changed much
.
Market rumors of purchase tax incentives are expected to be introduced, but there is no final confirmation
yet.
We expect that Shanghai rubber may be difficult to get out of the weak pattern in the short term, and the collective weakness of energy varieties is expected, and the low shock is expected to continue
.