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On March 30, Shanghai rubber rebounded, closing at 13,585 yuan / ton, up about 220 yuan / ton from the 29th, and the spot quotation was adjusted with the market; The average spot market price of domestic natural rubber (Standard 1) in China's East China market was 13,070 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 1.
4% from the previous trading day, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.
99%.
On the supply side, the recent natural rubber supply side is normal, the news said that the Southeast Asia shutdown period is about to pass, ushering in a new round of rubber tapping period, China's Yunnan production area cutting gradually increased, Hainan production area is expected to start trial cutting in mid-April, it is expected that after mid-to-late April, the overall rubber production will increase significantly, the overall supply pressure will increase in the future, but the impact of the market on the expected increase in production has been gradually digested
.
On the demand side, the country has recently been widely affected by the epidemic, and the peak period of the epidemic of tire enterprises in Shandong has passed, and the operating rate of tire enterprises in the main producing areas has gradually recovered; However, subject to the current complex economic situation and chip shortage, the automotive industry continues to be sluggish, but the demand for new energy vehicles is good, and the demand for natural rubber is bound to be promoted
.
Major domestic distribution places, such as Shanghai, the circulation of raw materials and automobile consumer demand have been greatly affected, rubber distribution and demand enterprises have stopped work, the shipment and circulation of natural rubber raw materials have been blocked, and the pressure on finished tire inventory has also increased
.
In terms of inventory, it is reported that the current rubber inventory in Qingdao is low month-on-month, and the destocking of rubber inventory in Qingdao has begun, and the domestic inventory is in a state where the outbound volume is greater than the inbound volume, and the arrival of natural rubber is reduced
.
In terms of import and export, customs statistics show that from January to February, China's natural rubber imports totaled 998,700 tons, an increase of 17.
88% year-on-year, of which 574,000 tons were imported in January, an increase of 8.
25% year-on-year; Imports in February were 424,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 33.
98%.
The reasons for the year-on-year increase in import volume were, on the one hand, the poor maritime market in the second half of last year, and some shipping schedules were delayed to January arrival; On the other hand, last year's replacement indicators were not completed as scheduled, and some of
them were moved to this year.
On the whole, the current circulation of goods in circulation places such as Shanghai that has been greatly affected by the epidemic has been blocked, and demand has been suppressed to a certain extent; It is expected that the short-term natural rubber market will maintain a volatile trend, and the recent focus will be on the increase in production in production areas and the impact of
the epidemic.
