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Last Friday's night market pessimism has not yet subsided, industrial products continued to decline, Shanghai aluminum first suppressed and then closed the lower shadow of the black line
.
At present, the price has entered the loss range of some aluminum plants, and the news said that Guizhou electrolytic aluminum is facing a complete shutdown, and the long-term restrictions on the supply side make it difficult for the aluminum market to continue to fall, focusing on the support around the May high of 20500
.
On the macro front, the Fed reiterated the tapper arrangement, and the Fed will soon taper its bond purchases; Domestic property tax pilot
.
In terms of fundamentals, SMM stocks on the 21st reported 957,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons from last Thursday; during the same period, the steel union statistics aluminum rod inventory was 201,000 tons, unchanged from last Thursday; the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in September was 492,000 tons, a slight increase of 2,000 tons from the previous month, and exports increased steadily; the import of primary aluminum in August was 172,000 tons, an increase of about 70,000 tons
.
Fundamentals: The double-limit policy is still advancing, and the preferential electricity price
for the electrolytic aluminum industry has recently been canceled in Sichuan.
The supply side affected by the limited power is still tightening, and the news of power restrictions and production restrictions is transmitted in Guizhou, and it is expected that the power restrictions and tank shutdowns will affect the production capacity of about 190,000 tons, and Xinjiang and other regions may face a new round of production
cuts.
Demand side: With the short-term decline in aluminum prices, the more cautious procurement demand in the early stage may be opened, more companies may choose to replenish at this time, and the futures market will usher in more buying hedging
.
Inventory: Inventory accumulation this week
.
Watch for the U.
S
.
House of Representatives to vote on a temporary debt ceiling bill to prevent black swan events.
At present, the market is still divergent, and it is still recommended to treat it with a long idea in the strategy, macro liquidity is still abundant, superimposed on dual control of energy consumption and power rationing, aluminum prices will stop falling and stabilize
.
