The supply of raw materials is tightening, and the price of PVC is rising strongly

On Wednesday, PVC futures rushed back down, the main 1809 contract once rose to a new high of 7525 yuan / ton in the year, and closed at 7390 yuan / ton, up 185 yuan, or 2.
57%, the volume was 388,000 lots, and the position decreased by 11,002 lots to 123,000 lots
.
The recent decline in PVC social inventory and the price increase of petrochemical enterprises have formed a certain support
for the futures price.

In terms of spot, according to data, the domestic PVC spot market has risen slightly recently, and the market low-price supply has decreased
.
The mainstream price of PVC is stable and small, and local adjustment is the mainstay
.
Plant start-up has gradually resumed, but the recent instability of some plants has led to limited production and supply
.
PVC enterprise shipments are acceptable, large manufacturers have pre-sale orders, inventory levels are low, and shipment pressure is not large
.
The social inventory in East China increased slightly, but there were not many supplies in the South China market, and the total PVC social inventory declined, providing some support
for the price rise.

In the short term, because of another round of speculation in environmental protection, the market atmosphere has eased the pessimistic expectations of downstream demand, and the lack of supply in the spot market can still support PVC prices, and the later focus is on the downstream acceptance of the current price
.

Although the recent decline in total PVC social inventory has provided some support
for the price rise.
However, from the downstream perspective, PVC terminal demand is in the off-season, building construction, etc.
are affected by high temperature weather, and the demand for products is weakened
.
Downstream small and medium-sized enterprises have insufficient orders, the enthusiasm to start work has decreased, and some have finished product inventory
.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, in terms of raw materials, calcium carbide is tightly balanced and the price is high, and the price of Shandong is stable around 3350 yuan / ton; On the supply side, high starts resumed, but seasonal factors may affect the actual start of the factory, and Qinghai Yihua and Inner Mongolia Junzheng were added this week; On the demand side, there is a peak season expectation, the raw material inventory of downstream factories is not much, and there is a demand for replenishment; In terms of inventory, the off-season in June and July did not accumulate significantly, and the upstream, middle and downstream inventories were not high
.

In view of the above analysis, the increase in PVC prices in the early stage is basically equal to the depreciation of the RMB, and the external quotations are exceptionally firm, which supports domestic prices
.
Low inventory in the future market makes supply and demand better, or there is a wave of downstream replenishment demand triggered by the upward market, it is recommended to pull back to go long
.

However, on the whole, the pressure on the supply side of PVC is not large, but the demand side is slightly weak
.
In the case of low inventory, the short-term PVC futures price may continue to push upward, but after the continuous unilateral rise in the early stage, the market may be repeated, and it is recommended that market participants operate cautiously and reasonably control risks
.