The supply of copper ore market is tightening, and the main force of Shanghai copper continues to rise sharply

Market focus: (1) China's CPI in June 2020 increased by 2.
5% year-on-year, expected to increase by 2.
5%, and the previous value increased by 2.
4%; PPI fell 3% y/y, down 3.
2% expected and down 3.
7%
in the previous month.
(2) The trade union of Chile's national copper company, Chile's national copper company (Codelco), the world's largest copper producer, said Wednesday that nearly 3,000 miners had contracted the coronavirus, prompting it to renew its call for more safety measures
.

Spot analysis: On July 9, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 50440-50720 yuan / ton, with an average price of 50580 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 730 yuan / ton
.
Copper prices are rising, the downstream remains on the sidelines, the price difference between the next month of the day narrows significantly, the holders are entangled, close to delivery, the contradiction between cash exchange and the willingness to rise to the water, traders are also difficult to do, and the spot transaction under the high copper price lacks support and cooperation
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 41,462 tons on Thursday, an increase of 1,173 tons per day, an increase of 5 consecutive days; On July 8, LME copper stocks were 192025 tons, down 3,800 tons per day, down for 16 consecutive days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2008 contract were 77080 lots, a daily increase of 2526 lots, short positions were 82677 lots, a daily increase of 2961 lots, a net short position of 5597 lots, a daily increase of 435 lots, long and short increased, and net space increased
.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2008 continued to rise
sharply on July 9.
The epidemic situation in South America is still fermenting, affecting local copper mine production and transportation, resulting in tight supply in the copper mine market; The tight production cost of raw materials has moved up, and the maintenance and production reduction of domestic smelters have increased, and the production of electrolytic copper is expected to further decline, which will support
copper prices.
However, downstream demand has weakened recently, domestic copper rod processing fees have been reduced, and Shanghai copper inventories have rebounded; In addition, the spread of refined scrap prices widened and the import quota of scrap copper was abundant, limiting the upward momentum
of copper prices.
In terms of spot, copper prices are rising, downstream remains on the sidelines, the price difference between the next month of the day narrows significantly, and the holders are entangled
.
Technically, the mainstream long position of the Shanghai copper 2008 contract increased significantly, standing at the 50,000 mark, and it is expected that the short-term shock will be strong
.
In operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 2008 contract can be long around 50500 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 50300 yuan / ton
.