The supply is increasing, and the rubber market is more likely to weaken after the shock

New rubber production: Latest global rubber monthly production data: According to the latest ANRPC report, global rubber production rose 1.
3% to 910,000 tons in March 2021
.
Among them, Thailand decreased by 10%, Indonesia increased by 2.
8%, Vietnam decreased by 12.
5%, and Malaysia increased by 44.
9%.

Global consumption of Tianjiao rose 7.
4% to 1.
234 million tons
in March.
Among them, China increased by 3.
3%, India increased by 40.
8%, Thailand decreased by 8.
4%, and Malaysia increased by 3.
4%.

In April, the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia rebounded, the situation was grim, Thailand had begun a curfew, and the situation in India was out of control
.
Although the epidemic for the rubber market demand increased, but as rubber production accounted for nearly 8% of India, the industrial environment was destroyed, not only the output of rubber was affected, the local demand for rubber products in China was also seriously affected, the most important thing is that the epidemic out of control has led to global concerns about the future economic situation, from mid-April the rubber market shock rebound, not strong, there is a shock downward in the middle, and then a slight upside
.

Downstream demand: The data shows that from February 18 to the 25th of the month after the Spring Festival holiday, bulk raw materials followed crude oil sharply higher, and the market of related commodities rose sharply, which boosted the enthusiasm of enterprises to resume work and production, and the operating rate of tire companies was quickly boosted, and in the spring traditional sales of the golden three silver four peak season, tire production was at a high level in nearly five years, and the operating rate remained high
in the first half of April 。 However, from the middle and late stages, the complex international situation and the rebound of the serious epidemic in parts of Southeast Asia have doubled the concerns of enterprises about overseas market demand, weakened market procurement demand, and the operating rate of tire companies has declined, it is understood that this is also the first decline in tire company operating rate after the Spring Festival
.
According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's rubber tire tire production in March was 82.
649 million, an increase of 18.
7%
year-on-year.
From January to March, the production of rubber tire tires increased by 46.
8% year-on-year to 214.
716 million units
.
The analysis said that the April data may be different
.

In terms of inventory: as of April 30, 2021, the stock of natural rubber in the previous period was 178192 tons, and the warehouse receipt was 176,240 tons, an increase of 650 tons and an increase of 2,160 tons, respectively; The inventory of No.
20 rubber was 58,422 tons, and the warehouse receipt was 56,074 tons, an increase of 180 tons and 382 tons respectively; The inventory and warehouse receipts of natural rubber in the previous period increased significantly, and the inventory of No.
20 rubber and warehouse receipts also increased
.

Southeast Asian rubber producing countries and China's main producing areas rubber cutting have begun and have a certain supply, although not enough to have a great impact on the market, but the impact on market expectations has appeared, the difference is that the current epidemic situation in Southeast Asia is serious, especially in India, coupled with the epidemic in Europe and the United States and the complexity of the relationship between many countries and China, all have a certain interference
with the economic recovery of the future market.
The start of downstream tire companies has been affected to a certain extent, and it is expected that with the continuous increase in the supply of new rubber, the possibility of weakening the natural rubber shock in the future market is greater
.