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Last week, the sky rubber ran strongly, and the price center of gravity moved
up compared with last week.
From a fundamental point of view, the epidemic in Southeast Asia has repeatedly interfered with supply, and the low recovery of tire operating rate on the demand side has a certain benefit to the market
.
However, in the later stage, it is difficult for downstream demand to have a sustained positive momentum, which has become the most important factor
in suppressing the market.
The trend of natural rubber in the later period is still regarded
as a low oscillation.
Recently, the shipments of domestic tire manufacturers have not improved significantly, and the inventory of finished products is still passively growing
.
The reason behind the weakening of the tire industry is the significant
decline in terminal vehicle market sales.
Data show that China's heavy-duty truck sales in May this year were 158,000 units, down 18% month-on-month, down 12% year-on-year, and 21,000 units
less than the same period last year.
China's new vehicle production and sales in May also fell by 8.
7% and 5.
5% month-on-month, and by 6.
8% and 3.
1%
year-on-year, respectively.
In terms of inventory, as of August 2, the inventory of 16 samples of natural rubber general trading warehouses in Qingdao was 407,900 tons, a decrease of 02,400 tons, or 0.
58%,
from the previous period.
The inventory of 17 samples in the region was 84,200 tons, down 03,500 tons, or 4.
01%,
from the previous period.
As of 08-06, the warehouse order of Tianjiao was 181,810 tons, an increase of 3,900 tons
week-on-week.
The total inventory of the exchange was 201,150 tons, an increase of 4,400 tons
week-on-week.
No.
20 rubber warehouse order was 37,870 tons, down 3,054 tons
week-on-week.
The total stock of the exchange was 46,137 tons, down 1,037 tons
week-on-week.
Since June, under the background of continued weakening of supply and demand, the center of gravity of Shanghai rubber prices has continued to shift
.
Among them, the 2109 contract fell from 13400-13500 yuan / ton to 12515 yuan / ton on Tuesday, hitting a new low
since October last year.
Although it stabilised on Wednesday, it failed to change the downtrend
.
The logic behind it is that, on the one hand, domestic production areas and Southeast Asian production areas ushered in the peak season of rubber tapping, and the potential supply pressure increased
.
While there are disruptions such as the pandemic and climate, seasonal trends
cannot be changed.
On the other hand, the arrival of the domestic car market and tire off-season, rubber demand has weakened significantly month-on-month, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and the road to finding the bottom of rubber prices is obstructed and long
.
On the whole, the expectation of tightening global liquidity in the future is gradually strengthened, and the supply and demand side of the rubber market is also facing the risk of continued weakening, and it is expected that the futures price of Shanghai rubber 2109 contract will remain weak, and the road to finding the bottom is not over
.
