The structural shortage of the market still exists, and the cost support of aluminum prices is strong

Last week, Shanghai aluminum saw a slight stabilization trend, rebounding 0.
15%
for the week.
The average price of spot aluminum in the Yangtze River last week was 13,764 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton from the previous week, an increase of 0.
73%.

The market price of scrap aluminum remained stable, and the market price of aluminum alloy ingots fell
.
The metals market performed mediocre
as China's economic slowdown triggered new demand concerns.
The weekly average price of scrap aluminum fell slightly, smelters were not enthusiastic about procurement, and market demand was relatively low
.

In terms of the market, considering that the cost of low-cost areas such as Shandong has far exceeded the current aluminum price, if the future due to losses lead to a significant increase in the production of electrolytic aluminum enterprises, it is expected that aluminum prices will stop falling and rebound, so in addition to the support of the heating season, it is expected that there is still support at the bottom, but the effectiveness of the support still depends on whether there will be a reduction in the production of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in the future
.
On the other hand, dynamically, the new production of electrolytic aluminum in the fourth quarter is more concentrated, which will put pressure on aluminum prices, but if the price falls again, it will also affect the release
speed of new production capacity.

In terms of stocks, Shanghai 341,000 tons, Wuxi 628,000 tons, Hangzhou 99,000 tons, Gongyi 76,000 tons, Nanhai 209,000 tons, Tianjin 51,000 tons, Linyi 25,000 tons, Chongqing 24,000 tons, consumption area aluminum ingot stocks totaled 1.
453 million tons, down 32,000 tons
week-on-week.

The current domestic aluminum price is much lower than the average cost of the industry, and the cost is still moving
up slightly.
Therefore, the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum due to losses continues to increase
.
At present, the new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is still more than the reduced production capacity, and the inventory is still 1.
41 million tons, so even if the current destocking state is maintained, the supply gap according to the current calculation is still not enough to make the inventory of more than 1 million tons rapidly reduced, and the downstream gradually enters the seasonal off-season, and the aluminum price is expected to remain weak and volatile
.

Looking forward to the future market: in the recent stage, overseas alumina and electro-aluminum market long and short news, while the global macro game against bearish worries intensified, resulting in the overall decline of commodities, non-ferrous shock anti-fall prices show a certain toughness, as far as the aluminum market is concerned, upstream alumina and anode carbon block environmental protection pressure is not reduced, aluminum ingot cost support is still strong after weakening, the structural shortage of the global aluminum market in the fourth quarter is difficult to fundamentally reverse, so that aluminum prices rely on the cost to build a support platform
。 In the fourth quarter, aluminum prices are backed by the lower cost to build a support platform, upstream raw material prices are still the main logic supporting electrolytic aluminum prices, short-term important support at 13500 yuan / ton, upper pressure to see 14500-15000 yuan / ton, pay attention to the back of the support of bargain buying opportunities
.