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Last week, Shanghai aluminum bottomed out, market sentiment gradually stabilized, and the fundamental situation was strong, especially the expansion of power cuts in Yunnan Province, supply continued to be limited, destocking continued to accelerate, spot premium performance was strong, supporting the rapid recovery of aluminum prices, close to the 19,000 mark
.
In terms of spot premiums, due to the sharp decline in aluminum prices, the premium continued to strengthen, while the spot trading performance was better, and the transaction was biased towards premium
.
At the fundamental level, first, the new production capacity is seriously blocked, before Inner Mongolia dual control, recently Yunnan production limit, originally planned to put into production capacity in June was postponed again, and Yunnan is the only province in China where production is concentrated, as the indicators are digested, the carbon peak carbon neutrality policy continues to heat up, and the peak of production capacity continues to support the price of electrolytic aluminum; Second, the production capacity has declined significantly, Yunnan production reduction scale has expanded, production capacity has dropped to around 3950, and the year has been fixed around this, which means that the output supply is more than 300,000 tons less than previously expected, imported aluminum ingots, scrap aluminum recycling has become the main source of supply, as inventories continue to decline, low inventories lead to a stronger premium or the next stage of the aluminum market normal, and even again appear long squeeze effect, the aluminum price support effect is stronger
.
Looking forward to next week, with the attention of domestic decision-makers on the surge in commodity prices, measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices and combat speculation have been introduced one after another, and the pressure from regulators has increased, and the rapid rise in commodity prices in the later period still encountered policy suppression
.
Next week, the domestic PMI data will be released, and the April data has shown that the economy has shown a super-seasonal decline, giving up most of the momentum, and there is little downside from the start of construction in May
.
The epidemic situation in Southeast Asia is heating up, the global economy is still in the recovery stage, and monetary policy is still in the easing stage; The pressure of domestic regulators is increasing, and the market sentiment disturbance is increasing, but the fundamentals are strong, low inventory, supply is declining, aluminum price support is strong, it is recommended to go long on the dip, close to the previous high wait-and-see
.
