The stock market is linked with nonferrous metals, and the aluminum price shock is weak

Overnight aluminum price volatility was weak
.
The current linkage between the stock market and nonferrous metals is similar to the first half of 15 years, and the trend of non-ferrous metals is difficult to weaken under the optimism of the financial market, on the contrary, if the trend is not optimistic, it will also restrict
the non-ferrous metals.

From a fundamental point of view, the supply and demand problems that were worried in June continued to play out in July, which was manifested in the certainty of supply and the uncertainty of demand or even declined
.
Supply certainty includes expectations of production growth, import substitution effects, and expected increases in scrap supply
.
On the demand side, it faces a seasonal slowdown and adverse exports
.
If a reversal of supply and demand can be expected, the proportion of molten aluminum converted into aluminum ingots will increase, thereby easing the spot tightness
.
Of course, the early stage may not be converted into warehouse receipts, but the hedging pressure on the plate will increase
.

Therefore, still hold a relatively cautious or even short opinion on aluminum prices, although the larger back structure and the capital trust market restrict the strength and confidence of shorting, but the endogenous driving force of the market to continue to rise has been insufficient, when the inventory turns to accumulation, the probability of pullback increases, at this time the most suitable is smelting enterprises to increase the alumina hoarding and hedging on the Shanghai aluminum disk
.