The stock futures linkage is advancing vigorously-the performance analysis and outlook of the petroleum and chemical sectors (part 1)

As of July 25, a total of 1,756 listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had disclosed their performance forecasts for the first half of the year, of which 1,236 were pre-happy, accounting for more than 70%
.

In terms of different industries, driven by the sharp rise in crude oil prices and loose monetary policy, the domestic bulk chemical product market has seen general rises in the future, making the chemical sector a concentration of expected performance growth

　Economic recovery chemical product prices rise　economic recovery chemical product prices rise

Since the beginning of this year, as the global new crown pneumonia vaccination rate has accelerated and countries have successively lifted blockade measures, the world economy has entered a recovery trend, and major international economic organizations have raised their forecasts for global GDP growth in 2021
.

Among them, the World Bank latest estimates that the global economy will grow by 5.
6% this year, 1.
4 percentage points higher than the forecast at the beginning of January; the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicts that the global economy will grow by 5.

The latest data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing also shows that the global economy as a whole maintained a momentum of recovery in the first half of the year.
Despite repeated epidemics in some countries, this trend has not changed significantly
.

The average global manufacturing PMI in the first half of the year was 56.

Due to the apparent recovery of the world economy, demand in the crude oil market has rebounded, especially in the United States and parts of Asia, where the demand for oil has risen sharply, which directly promotes the continued increase in global oil prices
.

In the first half of this year, the highest price of Brent crude oil reached US$76.

Crude oil is the king of bulk commodities, and the rise in its price has also driven up the prices of downstream chemical products.
The domestic bulk product market has seen a general rise
.

According to the statistics of Chemical Online, among the 141 major chemical products monitored, 117 products rose in the first half of the year

The cycle is approaching, the chemical sector performs strongly

　The cycle is approaching, the chemical sector performs stronglythe　cycle is approaching, the chemical sector performs strongly

Against the background of rising cyclical products, the two major domestic oil companies fought a battle in the first half of the year
.

PetroChina expects that its net profit in the first half of this year will increase by 75 billion to 90 billion yuan over the same period last year, corresponding to a net profit of 45.

In terms of sectors, the chemical sector performed the best this year
.

The cyclicality is strong, and most of the sub-sectors and individual stocks benefit from product price increases

The improvement in performance has also made the chemical sector favored by the capital market
.

According to statistics, there are a total of 383 listed companies in the CITIC Basic Chemicals sector, and the stock prices of 245 companies have risen, accounting for 63.
97%
.
Among them, the top gainers were Shida Shenghua, which rose 222.
79%, Zangge Holdings rose 178.
78%, Hubei Yihua rose 173.
75%, *ST Zhaoxin rose 166.
67%, and Levima Corporation rose 159.
28%
.

　　Equity-period linkage energy sector becomes a big winner

　Stock-to-market linkage energy sector becomes a big winner 　-to-　stock futures linkage energy sector becomes a big winner

　　Under the linkage between stocks and futures, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had a significant structural market in the first half of the year, while commodity futures showed strong overall gains
.
Since the beginning of this year, the bulk commodity market has maintained an upward momentum as a whole
.
As of the close on June 29, the three major sectors with outstanding performance in the bulk commodity futures market in the first half of the year were energy, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals
.

　　Among them, the main contract of energy crude oil 2108 in the previous period rose from the closing price of 334 yuan/barrel at the end of last year to the current 456.
3 yuan/barrel, an increase of 36.
6%; the main contract of crude oil 2109 listed on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose from US$48.
42/barrel at the beginning of the year.
Up to the current US$72.
94/barrel, an increase of 50.
64%
.
In addition, glass futures also performed well
.
Public data shows that the main contract of glass futures 2109 listed by ZCE has risen from RMB 1,838/ton at the end of last year to RMB 2,809/ton at present, an increase of 52.
83%
.

　　Industry insiders have analyzed that since the beginning of this year, the relatively high price increase of commodity futures has benefited from the continuous improvement of the global economy and the influence of loose monetary policies in developed countries
.
Global manufacturing inventories are at a low level.
In the context of improving demand, there is a need to replenish inventory, which in turn stimulates cyclical industry demand growth
.

　　"Since this year, the energy and chemical sectors in the futures market have enjoyed good
growth.
In addition to crude oil futures and glass futures, the price of LPG futures increased by 33.
88% during the year, the price of styrene futures increased by 36.
61%, and the price of PTA futures increased by 32.
68%.
, Asphalt futures prices rose by 32.
48%
.
On the whole, the general rise in the energy and chemical sectors was mainly affected by the trend of crude oil futures prices, which in turn drove the prices of other commodities to rise collectively
.
" said Zheng Yan, an energy analyst at Huishang Futures
.