The situation of oversupply will not change, and the overall shock of Shanghai aluminum will be strong

Shanghai aluminum overall shock yesterday, Lun aluminum began to fall
.
Today's Shanghai aluminum main month 2006 contract opened at 12290 yuan / ton, the highest intraday 12315 yuan / ton, the lowest 12005 yuan / ton, settled 12135 yuan / ton, and closed at 12105 yuan / ton, down 245 yuan
.
The weakening of fundamental supply and demand has not changed, and today Shanghai aluminum is under pressure and falls, and there is still supply pressure in the later period, and the probability of weak trend is greater
.

The rapid dematerialization of inventories, coupled with the continuous reduction of production on the supply side, gives aluminum prices bulls room for speculation, but it is necessary to be
cautious about the short-term upside.
On the one hand, rapid destocking or in order to digest the backlog of demand in the early stage, the decline in external demand in April may gradually be obvious, and the subsequent destocking strength is doubtful, on the other hand, the loss of the electrolytic aluminum industry is more carried out by compressing upstream profits, and with the rise of aluminum prices, whether the current intention to reduce production can still be observed
.
The rebound foundation is not solid, it is not recommended to chase long, wait and see, bears avoid, waiting for better entry opportunities
.

Industry News:

1.
According to foreign news on April 20, the International Aluminum Association (IAI) announced on Monday that global primary aluminum production increased to 5.
477 million tons in March, compared with 5.
145 million tons after revision in February; China's primary aluminum production is expected to increase to 3.
1 million tons in March, compared with 2.
909 million tons
after February revision.

2.
Méterro Mining announced on its official website on April 15, local time, that the first ship of bauxite in 2020 has been loaded on the 14th and has now arrived at the Skardon river
.
The first vessel, the Vialli, began loading on the morning of April 14, and the first cargo this year will be delivered to Xinfa Group, and according to the offtake contract, Xinfa Group will purchase about 2 million dry tons of bauxite
in 2020.
Metro Mining began onshore shift mining and transportation activities on April 2 and began 24-hour operations
on April 8.

At present, the big logic of electrolytic aluminum is still dragging down the global economy by the epidemic, and the excess situation of demand-affected industries remains unchanged, based on this judgment, it is not optimistic about the rebound
brought by the improvement of sentiment in the stage.
In addition, the cost side of alumina continued to fall sharply, resulting in a lack of cost support to weaken the subsequent pressure of aluminum production reduction
.

At present, the epidemic situation in many overseas countries has reached a turning point, and market sentiment has improved, but the follow-up demand pressure will continue to be realized, and the oversupply situation will not change
.
In addition, the decline in demand after the low price replenishment of domestic enterprises will also have negative feedback, do not continue to be optimistic about the current stage of the rebound market, the operation is recommended to see more and move less, selling insurance enterprises with the help of the rebound to properly maintain value, do not chase more, speculation is waiting for the signal to test the short
.