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Overnight, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 2205 reported 23125, up 70, and LME aluminum closed at 3625, up 24.
5
.
The epidemic has impacted domestic aluminum supply and demand, market demand is weak, the discount is large, the arrival of goods is gradually recovering, and the destocking is slowing down; Overseas energy crisis, metal low inventory price support is strong, but soaring commodity prices and high inflation expectations have an impact on market demand, limiting further price increases, and prices are expected to fluctuate
at short-term highs.
On the macro front, market expectations for the Fed's interest rate hike are still rising last week, the dollar remains strong, the dollar index continues to rise to around 98.
8, and the dollar is expected to continue to maintain a strong trend
in the near future.
Overseas, the Australian government immediately banned the export of alumina and aluminum ore, including bauxite, to Russia; Coupled with the closure of 1.
7 million tons of alumina plants in Ukraine in the early stage of Rusal (after all Ukrainian alumina was shipped to Russia for its own use), the gap in the supply of Russian alumina was further amplified, and the risk of global electrolytic aluminum supply contraction intensified
.
Domestically, China Aluminum Liancheng Branch held a grand opening ceremony of the 500kA series resumption project, with the continuous advancement of resumption of production, the current tight supply is expected
to ease in the future.
In terms of stocks, as of March 24, China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 1.
066 million tons, down 16,000 tons
from this week (March 21).
In general, the resumption of electrolytic aluminum production in various places is accelerating, and the output of electrolytic aluminum is also steadily recovering; On the consumer side, with the recovery of terminal consumption and the replenishment demand triggered by the decline in aluminum prices, electrolytic aluminum consumption is also rebounding sharply; The electrolytic aluminum market will show a pattern of double supply and demand, but because the recovery of electrolytic aluminum production requires a certain cycle, the recovery speed of the consumer side will be faster than that of the supply side, and it is expected that the short-term shock of aluminum prices is more likely
.
