The short-term trend of rubber fell and the fundamentals did not change significantly

Recently, rubber has been in a stalemate under the general rise in the commodity market
.
This is mainly due to the fact that the fundamentals of rubber do not support its bullish market and trend up
.
Rubber can be said to be a passive and rising 'player', once the macro surface has a certain turn, rubber must be the first to appear a more sharp decline
.
At present, the fundamentals of rubber are still weak
.

On the supply side, the opening and cutting in Hainan region of China is one to two weeks ahead of schedule, and the Yunnan region has been postponed to a certain extent because of powdery mildew, on the whole, the volume of warehouse receipts this year is the consensus of the market, and it is expected to gradually increase the volume at the end of May and early June;

On the demand side, the current rubber demand shows signs of weakening, mainly reflected in the weakening of the operating rate of tire companies for four consecutive weeks, the current export orders have fallen month-on-month compared with the fourth quarter of last year, and the expected improvement of overseas demand recovery depends on the promotion of vaccines
.

At present, the release of glue in domestic production areas is stable, northern Thailand and Vietnam will be gradually cut, and the overall cutting rate of Yunnan production areas in China is 40%, and it is expected to return to normal in mid-to-late
May.
Downstream May Day holiday shutdown manufacturers basically resumed production, some manufacturers inventory and shipments are under pressure, rubber short-term trend increased and fell, fundamentals have not changed
significantly.
However, the decline is expected to be limited, and the focus is on 13500 support
below.