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During the May Day holiday, LME aluminum prices showed a V-shaped trend, on May 3 Lun aluminum fell sharply to the lowest 2891.
5 US dollars / ton, May 4 stopped falling and rebounded, as of yesterday's night close, Lun aluminum rose back to 2985 US dollars / ton, compared with April 29 at 15 o'clock down 79 points, the cumulative decline of the holiday is 2.
57%.
As of 8 a.
m.
on May 5, Lun aluminum rose back to around 3010 US dollars / ton, basically recovering the holiday decline, according to the trend of Lun aluminum, it is expected that today's Shanghai aluminum flat open or slightly lower after the upward test probability is large
.
On the macro front, overseas, Sino-US economic data are not satisfactory, global economic growth lacks momentum, the IMF lowered its 22-year global economic growth forecast, of which the negative impact of the epidemic on China's economic growth is the focus
of recent attention.
At the same time, the Fed's tightening monetary policy has led to the strengthening of the US dollar, which has also put pressure
on the nonferrous color as a whole.
Domestically, the epidemic problem has also dragged down the domestic market sentiment, since March, the epidemic has broken out in many points in China, and strict epidemic prevention policies have restricted the downstream demand
for aluminum.
In terms of fundamentals, the weekly destocking of domestic aluminum ingots was 34,000 tons to 987,000 tons in the week before the holiday, and the weekly destocking of aluminum rods was 11,600 tons to 105,900 tons, mainly due to the recovery of transportation in some areas and the downstream pre-holiday stocking demand
.
From the perspective of operating rate, the operating rate of downstream leading processing enterprises in the week before the holiday was 64.
8%, a slight increase of 0.
3pct from the previous month, but still significantly lower than the same period in 20/21, of which enterprises in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai regions had poor
starts.
Overseas, LME stocks were destocked 15,900 tons before the holiday, but they increased by 07,600 tons to 577,700 tons on May 3, the first accumulation in nearly half a month
.
It is reported that due to concerns about the recession, U.
S.
aluminum spot buyers may have suspended new order purchases
.
In summary, short-term demand concerns will become the biggest suppressing factor above aluminum prices, and whether aluminum prices can rebound in the long run depends on whether domestic policies can effectively boost the economy and reach the target
of 5%-5.
5%.
We predict that there may still be a shortage in the domestic electrolytic aluminum market in the second quarter, but the uncertainty is also large, and it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the changes in the domestic epidemic and the landing
of macro easing policies.
