The short-term trend of aluminum prices is still affected by macro and capital aspects

Last week, Shanghai aluminum hit a new high, firstly, the US dollar index fell sharply to support the overall metal, secondly, economic data and easing policies in Europe and the United States and other countries promoted market expectations, and then the domestic spot squeeze market reappeared, overall, short-term aluminum prices are more around the macro and capital to price.

On the supply side: high profits stimulated the resumption of production, several enterprises resumed production, and three companies planned to put into operation in August; Cost side: Alumina prices are weak, profits are still at a high level
.
In terms of premium discount: domestic spot maintained premium but the range narrowed, and Lun aluminum discount continued to expand
.
Stocks: LME stocks fell to 1.
637 million tons, down 0.
07 million tons to 221,800 tons in the previous period, and social banks increased by 05,000 tons to 693,000 tons
.

From the perspective of supply and demand, although inventories remain low and have not accumulated significantly, spot supply is sufficient and demand still has many uncertainties, and the marginal supply and demand structure has weakened
.
However, due to the current low inventory and the rhythm of domestic production capacity release, aluminum prices are dominated by funds, and the game between strong reality and weak expectations is becoming increasingly intense
.
However, in the medium and long term, such a high profit aluminum price is bound to lead to the accelerated release of supply, and it is difficult for demand to have an actual increase under the influence of
the epidemic.