The short-term trend is still weak

News: Last week, the PE downstream operating rate was 53.
4%, -0.
4% week-on-week and -7%
year-on-year.
Mainly due to the weakening of agricultural film demand this week (of which the overall operating rate of agricultural film enterprises was 37.
9%, -3% week-on-week, +2.
9%
year-on-year.
The operating rate of shed film enterprises is about 24.
7%, -0.
9% week-on-week, and -3.
9%
year-on-year.
The mulch film operating rate was about 68.
6%, -7.
9% week-on-week, +4.
7% year-on-year), pulling down PE downstream starts
.
PE pipe starts have rebounded, but there is still a gap
of about 20% compared with previous years.
The operating rate of PE packaging film enterprises was 63.
0%, +0.
1%
week-on-week.

This week's agricultural film enterprise orders were -21.
6%
week-on-week.
Mulch film orders were -22.
0% week-on-week, and shed film orders were -21.
0%
week-on-week.
The raw material inventory of agricultural film enterprises was -0.
5%
week-on-week.
The raw material inventory of mulch film enterprises was -5.
5% week-on-week, and the raw material inventory of shed film enterprises was +1.
8%
week-on-week.

Spot market: The domestic polyethylene market price continues to fall
.
Most of the opening prices of sales companies have been lowered, ranging from 100-300 yuan / ton, merchants are cautious, most of the shipping offers have moved down, some upside down transactions, downstream enthusiasm for taking goods is not high, and the market is light
.
North China market fell 100-350 yuan / ton; East China market fell 150-250 yuan / ton; The South China market fell by 100-400 yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Exchange warehouse receipts reported 180 lots, +0 lots
today.
Main position: The top 20 long positions in the main contract are 216416 lots, +3242 lots, short positions are 258992 lots, +3309 lots, net positions are -42576 lots, net margin increased
.

Summary: Global central banks have continued the strategy of quantitative easing, which has provided some positive support to economic and market confidence, but the boost effect has been limited
.
The OPEC+ joint production reduction agreement failed to exert a strong positive effect this week, the market questioned that the scale of production cuts may not cover the scale of the demand recession, the current epidemic in Europe and the United States has not yet reached the peak, the IMF also lowered the global GDP growth forecast this week, from the previous 3.
3% to -3%, these factors have weighed on
market confidence.
In the industrial chain, production decreased last week, and petrochemical inventories accelerated to fall, but downstream demand has weakened
.
The demand for agricultural film is basically over, the demand for shed molds has not yet begun, and the demand for packaging film is basically stable, showing that the recovery of downstream demand is still insufficient, and after the sharp rise in the price in the early stage, the spot market transaction has been greatly reduced, indicating that the downstream high price is not willing to take goods, these factors have formed a certain pressure
on the price.
In terms of operation, it is recommended that investors set a stop loss for short orders in their hands and hold
them cautiously.