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Last Friday, the Shanghai aluminum shock was strong, but it still ran below
10,000.
Due to the relatively large proportion of exports, the recent suspension of overseas automobile industry has formed a significant negative impact on the fundamentals, resulting in weak aluminum operation in nonferrous metals
.
At present, the electrolytic aluminum industry has suffered a large loss, the scale of production reduction may expand, we believe that aluminum prices have limited downward space, but the rebound momentum under the weakness of external demand is also small, short-term or mainly shock-based, recently due to the expectation of reducing VAT heating, the near-month contract repaired to flat water, the follow-up can pay attention to the positive set of opportunities
.
Industry News:
1.
It is understood that Gansu Zhongweis Aluminum Co.
, Ltd.
currently has a built production capacity of 300,000 tons, the company specializes in the production of 6063 aluminum rods, complete specifications and models, and the source of aluminum water is Gansu Dongxing Jiayuguan Branch
.
The company has been shut down from June 2019 to late March 2020 due to various factors
.
Recent research has revealed that the company is fully prepared for the resumption of work conditions, and has gradually resumed normal production
since March 26, 2020.
Up to today, 2 aluminum rod production lines have been started, and the third production line has also entered the oven link, and it is expected that the company will be fully started in mid-to-late April, with a daily output of 800-1000 tons
.
Aluar Aluminio Argentino SAIC, one of Argentina's largest aluminum producers, said that the company reduced production by another 25% at its Puerto Madryn plant, which has a total capacity of 460,000 tons and produced 427,000 tons
in the year to June 2019, as a result of the country's coronavirus measures.
After layoffs this month, the Port Madryn plant now has 50 percent of its capacity
idle.
Companies with significant business can continue to operate, but mitigation measures must be put in place, including hiring as few people
as possible.
3.
Guinean President Conte issued a statement on March 26 that in response to the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the country has entered a state of health emergency that lasts for 30 days
.
Guinea closes its land borders and traffic in the capital Conakry will be restricted, with up to 3 people allowed in 1 family car, 7 to 10 passengers in minibuses and 1 person on motorcycles
.
Due to the global spread of the epidemic, after the "lockdown" of South Africa and India, a number of iron ore transportation ports announced the suspension of operations, Guinea, as China's largest bauxite importer, whether to take follow-up measures of "lockdown" is worth paying attention to
.
On the supply side: the loss reduction of production and production has been delayed, but the surplus situation remains unchanged; Cost side: alumina fell back at a high level, and electrolytic aluminum entered the production upside down
.
In terms of premium discount: domestic discount expanded, LME discount maintained a large level; Stocks: LME stocks rose to 1.
13 million tonnes, down in the previous period
.
590,000 tons to 528,000 tons, and the social bank increased by 05,000 tons to 1.
698 million tons
.
Last week, thanks to the Fed's unlimited QE stimulus, market sentiment improved significantly, the dollar liquidity crisis was temporarily resolved, the dollar index fell below 100, gold recovered its previous decline, but Lun aluminum continued to weaken to a new low, and Shanghai aluminum only slightly stabilized and adjusted
.
At present, as countries have successively launched blockbuster rescue policies, market sentiment has improved slightly, but the overseas epidemic is still in a high outbreak stage, and there is no sign of improvement, more and more countries have implemented strict isolation policies, and the impact of the epidemic on the real economy has just begun
.
Although the domestic resumption of work is good, the final demand is general, the accumulation rate of inventory has slowed down but has not changed the accumulation momentum, and the cost segment of alumina still has downward pressure, and the cost of cost also constitutes a drag
.
Overall, although the electrolytic aluminum industry has entered a stage of substantial losses, in the stage of overseas epidemic outbreak, market sentiment is difficult to say that it is difficult to completely improve, and the actual final consumption decline will gradually appear, the weak pattern of aluminum prices remains unchanged, and it is recommended to rebound actively to sell and maintain value, and short positions are wait-and-see
.
