The short-term long-short game is strong, and aluminum prices may show a wide range of fluctuations

At the macro level, although the aggressiveness of interest rate hikes in the United States has weakened, the problem of high inflation and low growth rate in the world has not yet been solved, and it is more difficult to continue to speculate on inflation under the background of the balance between curbing inflation and maintaining the economy, and the interest rate hike cycle has not yet ended; Domestically, it is expected that the main role of infrastructure is to support the bottom and stabilize the basic market, rather than to heat up the economy
.
Therefore, the macro environment has obvious constraints on aluminum prices, and at present, the "diarrhea" may be lower, but the environment for the sharp rise is also lacking
.

From a fundamental point of view, strong supply and weak demand is the current situation of the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry, but due to the low price in the early stage, summer electricity tension, accidents and other reasons, the supply increment has a certain degree of expectation difference, which also provides a certain space for the aluminum price rebound, but as the price recovers, the profit of the aluminum plant returns, and the progress of resuming production will be repaired
after the end of the peak of electricity consumption.
From the perspective of demand, the downstream operation situation remains sluggish, there is no obvious improvement, processing enterprises are mainly purchasing on demand, the final market aluminum is significantly dragged down by the real estate sector, and the pull of automobiles and infrastructure is difficult to reverse the weak fundamentals at present
.

In summary, the upper space of the previous period is limited, and the medium and long-term downward judgment is strong, or it shows a wide range of fluctuations
.