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According to statistics, LME metals generally fell during the long holiday, of which copper -7.
72%, and the copper market fell the most
.
Metals fell sharply during the holiday, but the fundamentals of supply and demand of non-ferrous metals did not change much in the short term, mainly because of the epidemic panic
.
In order to prevent the spread of the epidemic, the state has introduced measures to postpone the resumption of work after the holiday, which will slow down economic growth in the first quarter
.
On the first trading day after the holiday on February 3, except for gold and silver, other metals fell
across the board due to a slight increase in risk aversion.
The supply of raw materials, warehousing and distribution were affected
.
Domestic smelters did not stop production during the Spring Festival and maintained normal production according to the plan, which was not greatly affected by the epidemic
.
However, due to the special period, traffic control is implemented in some areas, logistics and transportation resources are tight, and the raw material supply and storage and distribution of smelting enterprises will be affected
.
Downstream consumption and terminal consumption have a greater
impact.
The start of downstream construction is generally postponed to February 10, and the downstream start of non-ferrous metal industries will reduce short-term demand
.
Especially in Hubei, Hubei is one of the important production places of air conditioning and automobiles in China, and the terminal manufacturing industry of air conditioners and automobiles accounts for a relatively large proportion, and the downstream demand has a greater
impact.
In addition, Hubei has a population of more than 59 million, accounting for about 4.
21% of China's total population, which has a great
impact on the short-term consumption of non-ferrous metals.
Domestic copper smelting enterprises started relatively normally, but downstream manufacturers were affected by the epidemic and delayed the start of work, and weakening demand led to lower copper prices
.
In terms of imports, the refined copper and scrap copper accumulated before the holiday are concentrated on customs declaration and import after the festival, and there is a rapid increase in inventory in a short period of time, traders actively dump goods, and the pressure
of expanding spot discounts.
Almost all provinces in East China, South China, North China and other major downstream consumption places have announced that enterprises should resume work no earlier than February 9, consistent with the tradition of enterprises and construction sites resuming work after the Lantern Festival, optimistic assumption that the epidemic is better controlled, and the actual pace of resumption of work will be slower
.
In terms of terminal demand, the demand for the whole year has little impact, but there is a short-term impact, and demand is delayed
.
Overall, imports increased faster after the holiday, demand was expected to be delayed by one to two weeks from normal years, total inventories were still at a low level compared with previous years, and it was still possible to enter the destocking cycle faster in the second quarter due to the restriction of copper scrap imports, so there was little room for copper prices to fall further
.
