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Overnight Lun aluminum nearly flattened, upper resistance reference around 1815, lower support reference around 1735; Shanghai aluminum main 1910 contract rebounded slightly overnight, lower support reference around 13820, short-term test of support near this position, upper resistance reference near 14280 position
.
Recently, mainly strong shocks, Shanghai aluminum short-term drive is still in alumina, not bearish in the near future, or there will be a small level of rebound, the medium-term trend is still to be further followed up by the macro situation, at present, the macro drive is still bearish
.
In terms of inventory, LME aluminum stocks were 984,250 tons, down 50 tons from the previous trading day, and the aluminum warehouse receipts in the previous period were 136655 tons, down 650 tons
from the previous trading day.
In terms of spot, the transaction price of Shanghai Wuxi market is between 14150-14170 yuan / ton, the flat water to the premium of the opposite plate is 20 yuan / ton, and the spot transaction price of the Hangzhou market is between
14160-14170 yuan / ton.
In terms of news, the National Bureau of Statistics announced on August 14 that China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) output in July was 2.
98 million tons, down 2.
0% year-on-year; From January to July, the output of primary aluminum was 20.
49 million tons, an increase of 1.
6%
year-on-year.
On the macro front, the 10-year and 2-year U.
S.
bonds have inverted for the first time since the financial crisis, and in the past 50 years, each inversion will usher in a recession, global risk assets have plummeted, investors' risk aversion has heated up sharply, U.
S.
stocks have fallen the largest in a single day of the year, gold has risen, and external base metals are generally weak
.
Domestically, China's economic data in July generally fell, and the added value of industries above designated size, urban fixed asset investment and other data were not as expected and the previous value, and the downward pressure on the economy increased
.
From the perspective of the industry, the previously announced electrolytic aluminum social inventory turned down, and the small accumulation of stocks in the off-season background turned to destocking again, and the off-season did not exceed expectations
.
The price of alumina at the raw material end has stabilized recently, the current average price is lower than 2450, most provinces alumina plants have been in the loss, some enterprises in Shanxi and Henan have reduced production, the recent filial piety due to the second youth meeting limited production of half of the alumina production capacity, it is expected that the late alumina decline space will not be too large, the raw material end cost line has a certain support for the later aluminum price operation, and has become the main driver
of the current aluminum price.
The recent prices of downstream aluminum profiles, aluminum rods, aluminum plates and aluminum rods reflect that the downstream consumption situation is acceptable, and there is no
weakness that exceeds expectations.
In the industry, the enthusiasm for chasing heavy rainfall in Shandong has faded, but the market still has differences
on the impact of rainfall on electrolytic aluminum production.
In addition to the possible impact of production, electrolytic aluminum was put into production in the third quarter was limited, resulting in a shortage of supply in the peak season, providing a basis for aluminum prices to rise, and the pattern of aluminum price center of gravity has not changed
.
