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On the one hand, the early technical rebound is strong, on the other hand, Europe issued a limit price of Russian oil of $60 with a weak energy again, and the Federal Reserve's continuous interest rate hike continues to suppress commodities, and the rubber market still temporarily lacks substantial stimulus
.
On the supply side, the peak season of overseas new rubber release, the overall performance of supply is abundant, the pace of domestic accumulation is accelerating, and China's import pressure is increasing
.
ANRPC's latest November report predicts that global sky rubber production in November is expected to increase by 2.
7% to 1.
426 million tons, an increase of 0.
6% from the previous month.
The consumption of tianjiao is expected to increase by 0.
6% to 1.
301 million tons, an increase of 0.
6%
from the previous month.
In 2022, the global production of sky rubber is expected to increase by 2.
3% year-on-year to 14.
382 million tons
.
Customs statistics show that in November, China's natural rubber imports were 616,100 tons, up 15.
68% month-on-month and 14.
45%
year-on-year.
From January to November 2022, China imported a total of 5.
3964 million tons of natural rubber (including latex and mixed rubber), an increase of 11.
04%
over the same period last year.
On the demand side, tire operating rates have declined again, and it is expected that the operating rate will remain low on New Year's Day holidays
.
The operating load of semi-steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 58.
65%, down 6.
48 percentage points and 5.
02 percentage points
lower than the same period last year.
The operating load of all-steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong was 49.
40%, down 6.
76 percentage points and 14.
44 percentage points
from the same period last year.
In terms of inventory, the social inventory of Tianjiao has entered the accumulation cycle
.
As of the week of December 16, the inventory of 16 samples of natural rubber general trading warehouses in Qingdao was 420,500 tons, an increase of 04,900 tons, or 1.
18%,
over the previous period.
The inventory of 17 samples in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone of natural rubber was 118,900 tons, an increase of 04,400 tons, or 3.
84%,
over the previous period.
The total inventory was 539,400 tons, an increase of 09,300 tons
from the previous period.
As of 12-23, the warehouse order of Tianjiao was 157,740 tons, an increase of 10,840 tons
week-on-week.
The total inventory of the exchange was 180,613 tons, an increase of 5,791 tons
week-on-week.
As of 12-23, the No.
20 rubber warehouse order was 28,809 tons, down 2,530 tons
week-on-week.
The total stock of the exchange was 34,101 tons, down 1,019 tons
week-on-week.
Recently, rubber prices have been volatile, and the main 2305 contract of Shanghai rubber fell by 3.
9%
week-on-week.
The overall supply side maintained stable growth, the demand side operating rate was less than expected, and the short-term natural rubber market may show a downward trend
due to the macro environment.
