The Shanghai rubber disk is warm and oscillating, and we should be wary of peripheral macro disturbances

On the supply side, close to February to March gradually turned more, Vietnam is expected to stop cutting at the end of January and early February, the current northern and northeastern Thailand tribal leaves gradually increased, in the past week in southern Thailand local rain, supporting raw material prices to rise firmly, so far last year Hat Yai glue has risen by 12.
48%.

Recently, the Southeast Asia container freight index fell by 2.
52% month-on-month, the problem of high freight rates was slightly alleviated, and the problem of shipping schedule still existed, due to the normal storage of the port during the Spring Festival superimposed on the stagnation of downstream buying and procurement, as of the week of February 7, Qingdao port area and outside the seasonal accumulation, of which social inventory increased by 47,800 tons, up 21.
22% month-on-month, and regional inventory increased by 30,200 tons, an increase of 39.
02%
month-on-month.

In terms of demand, a small amount of downstream stocking before the Spring Festival is significantly lower than the same period last year, and the current raw material inventory of tire factories is low, and the inventory of finished products is huge, which puts pressure on cash flow
.
With the gradual start of logistics in various places, tire companies have also begun to accept orders and deliveries
.
At present, the domestic tire listed companies have resumed production positively, and as of February 7, most companies have resumed work and production
.
Among the unlisted enterprises, Dongying, Weifang and other regional tire companies are still in a state of holiday, some companies said that they will resume production after 20 days, and tire companies outside Shandong Province plan to resume work
around the 10th.
Follow-up attention will be paid to the digestion speed of finished product inventory of tire factories, as well as the heat of centralized procurement of raw materials by downstream factories after resumption of
work.

On the whole, the short-term supply and demand double weak pattern still exists, the performance of the market has digested the long and short factors before and after the holiday, the market trend is more wide and volatile, and the uncertainty on the demand side is strong, the disk lacks the momentum
to continue to rebound or rise.
The actual situation of downstream enterprises resuming work after the holiday needs to be continuously tracked, and the market expectation is not optimistic under the pressure of finished product inventory; In terms of port inventory, we should be wary of the concentrated arrival pressure
of tianjiao imports in mid-to-late February.
In the medium term, the arrival of the global supply off-season is favorable, pay attention to the progress of downstream demand, and be vigilant against peripheral macro disturbances
.