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On Friday, the trend of Shanghai aluminum was significantly weaker than that of other metals, and the intraday shock moved downward, with the lowest of the main contract falling to 13535, a new low since July 2017, and closing at 13555 at the end of the day, down 110, or 0.
8%,
from the previous trading day.
The recent weakening of alumina and pre-baked anode prices has dragged down the trend of aluminum prices, the market lacks favorability, and the short-term trend of Shanghai aluminum is still under pressure, and the main force has the risk of falling below the 13,500 mark, so it is appropriate
to wait and see.
In terms of spot, LME aluminum spot discount was $7.
25/ton, compared with $10/ton
in the previous session.
During the day, the transaction price in Shanghai was concentrated at 13560~13570 yuan / ton, and the discount for the month was 60 yuan / ton ~ 50 yuan / ton, and the overall transaction in East China was flat
.
In the late afternoon, aluminum maintained range volatility, the transaction price was between 13570~13580 yuan / ton, and the 40~30 yuan / ton was posted for the month, because there were more warehouse receipts and low-iron high-quality goods in the market in the afternoon, and the price was slightly higher than in the morning, but the actual transaction volume was rare
.
In terms of stocks, LME aluminum ingot stocks on November 29 decreased by 02,600 tons from the previous day to 1.
0553 million tons, and on November 29, domestic aluminum ingot social stocks decreased by 21,000 tons from Monday to 1.
308 million tons
.
Opinion: Aluminum prices maintain weak shocks, and the macro recovery caused by weak fundamentals has limited
boost to aluminum prices.
Although the current domestic aluminum ingots maintain a destocked state due to the reduction in supply, the supply gap estimated according to the current calculation is not enough to make the rapid reduction of high inventory, in addition, the downstream gradually enters the seasonal off-season, and the cost is collapsing (the anode price fell by another 100 yuan / ton), it is expected that the domestic aluminum price performance from the end of 2018 to the first quarter of 19 will remain relatively weak
。 The risk point is that the loss factor or lead to the increase in the production of electrolytic aluminum enterprises, then the aluminum price may appear a phased rebound, but the strength of the rebound still needs to see whether there will be a large-scale reduction in the future market, and the current production reduction has not yet constituted a scale, so it is expected that the aluminum price is still a bottom-seeking process
.
