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On Friday, the Shanghai aluminum 1611 contract was volatile and stronger, slightly expanding the overnight gains, stronger than Lun aluminum and copper futures, closing at 12050 yuan / ton at the end of the day, up 0.
5% from yesterday's closing price, but the current Shanghai aluminum is still running below the moving average group, short-term downside risks remain.
At the same time, the term structure of the aluminum market turned to a negative arrangement of near high and far low, and the negative spread between Shanghai aluminum 1610 and 1611 contracts widened slightly to 230 yuan / ton, indicating that the willingness of forward contracts to decline has risen
.
Externally: Asian Lun aluminum rebound weak, trading is very light, of which 3-month Lun aluminum slightly fell 0.
31% to 1588 US dollars / ton, so that Lun aluminum effectively runs below M60, but the short-term Lun aluminum RSI indicator fell to the oversold area, need to be wary of technical correction demand, lower support attention to 1550 US dollars / ton, upper rebound resistance 1650 US dollars / ton
.
Macro: The Asian dollar index rebounded weakly, with the oscillation slightly falling to around
94.
8.
China's August CPI rose 1.
3% year-on-year, far lower than expected and the previous value, for three consecutive months, and the year-on-year decline in August continued to narrow to 0.
8%, mainly due to the base effect, and the current low inflation still supports the relatively loose monetary policy
in China.
In terms of industry, in August, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased to 2.
732 million tons, an increase of 4.
9% year-on-year, and the new annualized operating capacity was about 650,000 tons to 32.
167 million tons, due to the release of new production capacity in Shandong Weiqiao, Shandong Xinfa, Xinjiang Hope, Guangxi Bai Mine, etc.
, including Gansu Liancheng, Shanxi Zhaofeng, Jiaozuo Wanfang, Sichuan Qixing and other aluminum enterprises resumed production, driving the overall operating capacity to increase
.
Market: On September 9, Shanghai aluminum trading concentrated 12630-12640 yuan / ton, and the premium for the month was 70-80 yuan / ton
.
The transaction in Shanghai is still not as good as in Wuxi, and the local transaction price in Wuxi is still relatively firm, and with the increase in dumping volume, the market price is lowered, and Hangzhou has fewer local supplies, so it maintains a high premium, and the downstream maintains on-demand procurement
.
Next week facing delivery, the basis of the next month is still 300 yuan / ton, and next week is the short week of trading before the Mid-Autumn Festival, the willingness of holders to exchange cash has increased, and the premium may continue to be lowered
.
The Shanghai aluminum 1611 contract oscillated and rebounded to 12050 yuan / ton during the day, which was stronger than other base metals, but in view of the fact that the Shanghai aluminum bias space situation has not changed, it is recommended that the Shanghai aluminum 1611 contract can continue to pay attention to the rebound to 12100 yuan near the short construction opportunity, the target reference is 11850 yuan / ton
.
